Allegro.cc - Online Community

Allegro.cc Forums » Off-Topic Ordeals » The debt ceiling

This thread is locked; no one can reply to it. rss feed Print
The debt ceiling
Trent Gamblin
Member #261
April 2000
avatar

Of course not. They're part of the constitution.

BAF
Member #2,981
December 2002
avatar

I wish I could opt out of social security. I don't need nor want the government's retirement package. Nevermind the fact that it will be even more beyond bankrupt by the time I'm of age to collect, if it even exists, it's a pretty crappy plan with stupid limitations. Let me manage my own money - the government can't even manage their own. >:(

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Of course not. They're part of the constitution.

So do you have the right to riot, or is it mandatory?

BAF said:

I wish I could opt out of social security

If you invested 10% of a meager $30,000 salary for 50 years and got average return rates, you'd end up with 1.2 MILLION dollars of personal savings. That would last you 40 years at your $30,000 salary.

And that still leaves 2% to 3% (since SS is more than 10%) that could be left for social programs for those who (really) cannot work.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
avatar

So do you have the right to riot, or is it mandatory?

THIS. IS. CANADA.

Of course its mandatory. Honestly, what were you thinking?

--
Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Edgar Reynaldo
Major Reynaldo
May 2007
avatar

If you invested 10% of a meager $30,000 salary for 50 years and got average return rates, you'd end up with 1.2 MILLION dollars of personal savings. That would last you 40 years at your $30,000 salary.

Math check :

(30,000 * 1/10) * 50 * ~1.1 = 165,000

That's approximately 5 1/2 years of living once you retire, assuming you keep spending money at the same rate. And for the people who can't afford to save any money - the people who barely get by paying their bills? WTF do they do when they turn 65? Social security is a good idea, and at least gives a small safety net to those with nothing.

The real problem is when Government borrows money from programs like social security and medicare, because they never pay it back. The government owes itself about 4.7 trillion dollars, borrowing from Peter to pay Paul.

relpatseht
Member #5,034
September 2004
avatar

You're reading the problem wrong, Edgar.

#SelectExpand
1double total = 3000.0; 2for(int t=0; t<50; ++t) 3{ 4 total *= 1.067; 5 total += 3000.0; 6} 7// total ~= 1178239

That is, assuming it is compounded yearly.

Edgar Reynaldo
Major Reynaldo
May 2007
avatar

Well, I may have underestimated the effects of compound interest, but you're being rather generous with your figures.

#SelectExpand
1 2#include <cstdio> 3#include <cstdlib> 4 5 6int main(int argc , char** argv) { 7 if (argc != 4) {printf("Error.\n");} 8 9 double saved = atof(argv[1]); 10 double rate = atof(argv[2]); 11 int years = atoi(argv[3]); 12 13 double total = 0; 14 for (int i = 1 ; i <= years ; ++i) { 15 total += saved; 16 total *= rate; 17 } 18 19 printf ("Total savings after saving %lf per year for %i years at %lf interest rate is :\n" , saved , years , rate); 20 printf("%lf\n" , total); 21 22 return 0; 23}

Where do you think you're going to get a 6.7% return on your investment? Only lucky stock brokers make that much. More likely you get at most 4%, and most people who earn 30,000 a year have to go through at least 2 or 3 years of school. 65 - 21 = 44 years of saving.

So, $3,000 at 4% for 44 years :
$360,088.18

And at 30,000 a year that's still only 12 years. Hope you don't want to live past 77, or else you can go live in the street. And none of that accounts for the people who can't afford to save any money to begin with. Might as well send them off to the glue factory when they hit 65, because they won't have anything to live on.

relpatseht
Member #5,034
September 2004
avatar

Well, honestly, I was pulling interest rates out of my ass trying to come up with a figure close to ML's with a yearly compound and without actually doing any work.

Regardless, your figures are a bit off again.

#SelectExpand
1double total = 360088.18; 2int t = 0; 3 4while(total > 0.0) 5{ 6 total -= 27000; // They were only spending 27,000 per year before. 7 total *= 1.04; 8 ++t; 9} 10// t = 19

So, at 4% for 44 years they have 18 years of savings before they hit debt, which puts them at 83 years old. Granted, six years isn't much of a difference, but it is just enough to put the bar past the average life expectancy (in the US, at least).

Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
avatar

The masses have found out they can vote themselves bread and circuses. It'll take another few decades before they have any sense again.

They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas.

Jonatan Hedborg
Member #4,886
July 2004
avatar

To complicate the calculations further - most people earn less in the beginning of their careers than in the end. If 10% at the first year is only 1000$, it "becomes" 1000 * 1.04^50 = 7107$, compared to 21320$ if it was 3000$. The total difference shouldn't be that big, but it's still valid. You also need to take inflation into account (it's usually around 2% in Sweden, no idea about the US). What's the "living wage" in the US btw?

There is also the question of "helping people helping themselves" - someone might not start saving money until their 30s, since it seems so far off and there are more fun things to do with that money :D

van_houtte
Member #11,605
January 2010
avatar

*L0Ling at usa

-----
For assistance, please register and click on this link to PM a moderator

Sometimes you may have to send 3-4 messages

piccolo
Member #3,163
January 2003
avatar

I thought the OP was a song.

You guys are blind. The USA was planing to get rid of their debt by going to war with China. However China new this and countered. China has used its money and man power to rooted it self in many nations starting and paying for programs and building relationships. Its same thing the USA used to do.

So in the invent of a war they have many countries on their side. China makes its military mite known however they do not storm into conflit playing the role of a responsible big bother.

What the use is trying to do is turn everyone against China so they can have their war and get rid of the debt. Then India will be the new China. You ask why does USA need a "China"? Its because that's the only way to make and sell things so cheaply to the the people in the USA and to the contries that USA plays The role of the middle man too.

wow
-------------------------------
i am who you are not am i

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

My figures are pessimistic:

  • Investments are shown to give 8% annually over the long run (i.e. 50 years) when you consider interest and reinvested dividends. (It's certainly been true for mine over the last 10 years.) I figured less than that.


  • Most people will average more than $30,000 / year over their lifetime. Even if your wage starts there, you're likely to get a minimum of 2% increase every year.


  • When you reach retirement age, you wouldn't stop making money off interest.

If you want to base it off of 40 solid years of working (25-65) with a intro salary of $30,000 and give yourself a 2% raise every year, you would have about $1 million in savings. If you moved the money into a safer, lower yield interest rate of around 4% at retirement, you could spend almost $40,000 / year and not lose any money!

You could live to infinity. :o

And none of that accounts for the people who can't afford to save any money to begin with.

You miss the point entirely! The government already takes around 12% of your income for Social Security and related programs. (Note that your employer pays around 6% of that, but in reality, it's just coming out of your paycheck too.)

If the government didn't take out that 12%, you would be free to invest it yourself.

There is also the question of "helping people helping themselves"

I understand that principle, and I think it is a smart one because you are right. The poor or stupid person would use Edgar's silly logic and not save the extra 12% they now have. But let me opt out of the "personal savings" aspect of SS, because I'm smart enough to save more money than the government will ever be able to give me via SS.

Jonatan Hedborg
Member #4,886
July 2004
avatar

Is there an economy of scale at play here? Can the government (at least in theory) use the money in a better way than even a smart person could? If they were to invest the money, surely they could get better returns?

And if they simply make the current workers pay for the last generation of workers, they would get around the issue of inflation, and avoid giving money to banks needlessly. The problem with this is that the system can never stop...

Trent Gamblin
Member #261
April 2000
avatar

So do you have the right to riot, or is it mandatory?

It's never stated explicitly that it's mandatory, but every good Canadian knows it's riot or GTFO.

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
avatar

I understand that principle, and I think it is a smart one because you are right. The poor or stupid person would use Edgar's silly logic and not save the extra 12% they now have. But let me opt out of the "personal savings" aspect of SS, because I'm smart enough to save more money than the government will ever be able to give me via SS.

We need to shackle people like you from making smart investments with your money because it makes dumb people look bad. That's why we have to force everyone to do the same mediocre investment scheme (Social Security) to equalize everyone's retirement into a semi-crappy one. What's 12% of your lives' income in comparison to making us all look the same regardless of how smart each of us is.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Can the government (at least in theory) use the money in a better way than even a smart person could? If they were to invest the money, surely they could get better returns?

This is the government ... of course they cannot use the money better than a smart person.

How can you invest money when you are immediately paying out more in benefits than you are collecting because this generation of workers is smaller than the number of retired people, and when the previous generation was larger you didn't save any of it? (This hasn't quite happened yet, but in a few years it will be losing money.)

SiegeLord
Member #7,827
October 2006
avatar

We need to shackle people like you from making smart investments with your money because it makes dumb people look bad. That's why we have to force everyone to do the same mediocre investment scheme (Social Security) to equalize everyone's retirement into a semi-crappy one. What's 12% of your lives' income in comparison to making us all look the same regardless of how smart they are.

Yeah, because all smart people want to do is figure out how to get themselves richer, instead of actually tackling hard questions in science, medicine and other fields. I'd gladly take some (or a lot) of government inefficiency in exchange for being able to focus on what's actually important.

"For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increases knowledge increases sorrow."-Ecclesiastes 1:18
[SiegeLord's Abode][Codes]:[DAllegro5]:[RustAllegro]

Jonatan Hedborg
Member #4,886
July 2004
avatar

This is the government ... of course they cannot use the money better than a smart person.

That's just a non-argument. "The government is by default made of fail". Of COURSE it could, in theory, be better than a smart person at investing. They could hire good investors, for one. This assumes that investors are actually better than chance at investing (I was some report claiming otherwise recently).

But my questions were not rhetorical - I'm curious as to if there are benefits of scale when it comes to investments. I guess that's why there are collective investment schemes.

Of course, if the current pool of workers is smaller than the previous one, either the current one will have to pay more or it would have to be solved in some other way.

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
avatar

SiegeLord said:

Yeah, because all smart people want to do is figure out how to get themselves richer, instead of actually tackling hard questions in science, medicine and other fields. I'd gladly take some (or a lot) of government inefficiency in exchange for being able to focus on what's actually important.

Yeah! Rich people are bad at science, all they know is money. We should raise SS to 24% use that money to pay scientists to discover science and medicine. The 7B/year with 0 revenue the government spends on science now is absurd! By doubling SS we can raise that to 700B/year and it can start getting real science done.

Private industry sucks, Genetech spends 6B/year (10B revenue) has only cured some kinds of cancer. And insulin is a crap invention, it's just making the rich richer.

The government needs to take over. Take a look at what it's discovered with it's 7B in taxes: http://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=114372&org=NSF

They've got things like:

  • "Tiny Torrents: Researchers Develop Powerful New Microchip-sized Fan"

  • "Ancient "Nutcracker Man" Challenges Ideas on Evolution of Human Diet"

  • "Platypus Genome Decoded"

  • "Species Have Come and Gone at Different Rates Than Previously Believed"

Who needs insulin, asthma treatments, blot clot treatments, cystic fibrosis treatments and cancer treatments when I can have the Platypus genome?

SiegeLord
Member #7,827
October 2006
avatar

Wow, Dustin... I wish the Daily Show did a segment on you.

"For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increases knowledge increases sorrow."-Ecclesiastes 1:18
[SiegeLord's Abode][Codes]:[DAllegro5]:[RustAllegro]

gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
avatar

insulin

You mean the hormone that was discovered, developed into a treatment, and synthesized at state-funded universities? ???

--
Move to the Democratic People's Republic of Vivendi Universal (formerly known as Sweden) - officially democracy- and privacy-free since 2008-06-18!

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
avatar

Solid arguments, both of you.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
avatar

See I thought he was being facetious. Maybe I'm just a sarcastic bastard, I dunno.

--
Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Of COURSE it could, in theory, be better than a smart person at investing.

In theory, an individual with a direct personal interest will do better than a politician seeking to win re-election. Show me a government that actually exists to serve its people for the "greater good," and then, in theory, I may agree with you.

But why does the government need to be in charge of investing money? Why not just mandate that 10% of the first $100,000 your pre-tax income must be placed into a personal retirement fund? You can then take 3% more for disability insurance.

With the current situation, you must a) cut benefits or b) raise taxes.

And since the typical politician only cares about getting re-elected (because it is his career), doing either of those two things are bad.

SiegeLord said:

Yeah, because all smart people want to do is figure out how to get themselves richer

I'm not against an optional government personal savings plan for those who cannot be bothered to invest in private options. It's your loss, not mine.



Go to: