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8.8 Earthquake in Japan |
Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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Neil Black said: It would have been better to hope that the radiation damage is less than the property damage. So you are suggesting you hope that the property damage has no upper bound and that the radiation damage is close to that. |
Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
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Yes. So, what's the worst-case scenario on the radiation/nuclear plants situation? My roommate is convinced its another Chernobyl.
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Vanneto
Member #8,643
May 2007
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Miran commented about that on page 2. In capitalist America bank robs you. |
Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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I commented about his friends three years ago. |
Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
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With this one, I'll agree with you Matthew. He's one of those people who's like, "I talked to someone who seemed authoritative, therefore I know more than everyone."
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Vanneto
Member #8,643
May 2007
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Is this the same guy you had the "out of pizza" debate with? In capitalist America bank robs you. |
Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
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Nope. I only complain about friends when they're being particularly stupid. Keep that bias in mind.
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Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
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I kind of like JP's opinions, even though they seem to have gotten a bit muddled since his brain tumor. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2011/Q1/view666.html#Thursday They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas. |
gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
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Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010
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So what we've learned so far is that if external power supply is lost and diesels are rendered unusable, there can be quite some difficulties in maintaining control of nuclear plants, right? Is it really that unlikely that those conditions are met? (I can imagine: attack, heavy snow+low temperature, and, of course, tsunamis) |
Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
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It's been said several times that these are an older reactor design...
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type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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gnolam said: Animated plot of the quakes between 2011-03-09 and 2011-03-14:
Thanks. Nice..
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miran
Member #2,407
June 2002
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Polybios said: So what we've learned so far is that if external power supply is lost and diesels are rendered unusable, there can be quite some difficulties in maintaining control of nuclear plants, right? Right. Quote: Is it really that unlikely that those conditions are met? (I can imagine: attack, heavy snow+low temperature, and, of course, tsunamis) Yes, it's that unlikely. One other scenarion I can imagine is a commercial size airplane crashing right into the switchyard and then proceedning to take out not just one, but both tanks that hold diesel fuel. Extremely unlikely. Quote: That's not what I'd call safe. I'm not 100% sure, but I think in the entire history of the nuclear industry this was the first time diesel generators were actually needed. Yes, in retrospect it seems very unsafe to only have backups that can be destroyed by a mere 10m tsunami that was caused by a little 8.9 tremmor in the ground, but then again, it was a 10m tsunami! -- |
amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
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type568 said: I wonder though, could these pre- 8.9EQ small EQs be used as a warning sign. I'm sure they could hint, but.. This has to be somewhat reliable.. I wondered the same, but then again this might be the base level of earthquakes in that region. In this video you don't see what it looks like on any normal day. -- |
axilmar
Member #1,204
April 2001
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In 2007, a 6.8 earthquake in Japan created a problem in one of the reactors in the Kasiouwasaki station, the biggest nuclear plant with 7 nuclear reactors. The company tried to downplay the problem the first 24 hours, but afterwards they were forced to admit that the reactors were not designed to withstand such an earthquake. Japan took a lot of shortcuts with their nuclear reactors, and now they are paying the price. |
gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
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Polybios said: Is it really that unlikely that those conditions are met? (I can imagine: attack, heavy snow+low temperature, and, of course, tsunamis)
Yes. -- |
Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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And even after all that consider that the plant itself hasn't had a complete melt down, or anything even really approaching a serious radiation emergency. Especially since its an older model plant. That to me says nuclear power is rather safe. -- |
Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
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Latest reports say they've been using dihydrogen monoxide on the radioactive stuff! Some of it's reputed to be impure, as well! They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas. |
Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010
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gnolam said: These were exceptional circumstances: an absolutely massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake (it got upgraded from 8.9, making it either the fourth or fifth strongest quake in the history of seismology).
"Exceptional" and "history of seismology" don't fit together well. Earthquakes predate seismology quite significantly, precise data is only available since c. 1900, afaik. You can't really argue anything being "exceptional" from that, only because it didn't happen the last 100 years or so. type568 said: I wonder though, could these pre- 8.9EQ small EQs be used as a warning sign. I'm sure they could hint, but.. This has to be somewhat reliable.. Wikipedia said: Quote: Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month. However, for well-understood faults seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the probability that an earthquake of a given size will affect a given location over a certain number of years. The overall ability to predict earthquakes either on an individual basis or on a statistical basis remains remote. Once an earthquake has already begun, early warning devices can provide a few seconds' warning before major shaking arrives at a given location. The precision of prediction is: years. You only get precise info a few seconds before the major shaking. |
gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
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Polybios said: "Exceptional" and "history of seismology" don't fit together well. Earthquakes predate seismology quite significantly, precise data is only available since c. 1900, afaik. You can't really argue anything being "exceptional" from that, only because it didn't happen the last 100 years or so.
Luckily, there's this thing called history, where stuff like "enormous, destructive earthquakes" or "tsunamis" tends to get recorded... Also, a hundred years of data is pretty darned good for most types of risk assessments. -- |
type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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gnolam said: Also, a hundred years of data is pretty darned good for most types of risk assessments. It's considered to be good due to lack of alternatives. It really doesn't cut the point though.
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Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010
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While the period of about 4000 years of written history is considerably longer than 100 years, it is still quite a short period of time compared to 4+ billions of years of earth's history, isn't it? gnolam said: Also, a hundred years of data is pretty darned good for most types of risk assessments.
Now don't mislead by saying "a hundred years of data". The type of data is quite important. That's just nonsense in this context. |
anonymous
Member #8025
November 2006
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Chile is known for big earthquakes. Do we have a record predating 1500s? |
Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010
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That's beside the point. But all this discussion is futile, I hope they will be able to avoid further spread of this stuff |
X-G
Member #856
December 2000
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I like how the assertion that "there is no data to prove it is exceptional!", while ignorant and false in and of itself, is somehow implied to also mean "therefore it is extremely common!". Get educated. Modern nuclear power is more than safe enough (although more science is always better!), and the alternatives are not good enough to satisfy our energy needs. The "giga-risks" you are talking about do not exist. -- |
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