Allegro.cc - Online Community

Allegro.cc Forums » Off-Topic Ordeals » 8.8 Earthquake in Japan

This thread is locked; no one can reply to it. rss feed Print
8.8 Earthquake in Japan
Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

It would have been better to hope that the radiation damage is less than the property damage.

So you are suggesting you hope that the property damage has no upper bound and that the radiation damage is close to that. >:(

Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
avatar

Yes.

So, what's the worst-case scenario on the radiation/nuclear plants situation? My roommate is convinced its another Chernobyl.

Vanneto
Member #8,643
May 2007

Miran commented about that on page 2.

In capitalist America bank robs you.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

I commented about his friends three years ago. :-/

Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
avatar

With this one, I'll agree with you Matthew. He's one of those people who's like, "I talked to someone who seemed authoritative, therefore I know more than everyone." :-X

Vanneto
Member #8,643
May 2007

Is this the same guy you had the "out of pizza" debate with? :P

In capitalist America bank robs you.

Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
avatar

Nope. ;D

I only complain about friends when they're being particularly stupid. Keep that bias in mind.

Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
avatar

I kind of like JP's opinions, even though they seem to have gotten a bit muddled since his brain tumor.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2011/Q1/view666.html#Thursday

They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas.

gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
avatar

Animated plot of the quakes between 2011-03-09 and 2011-03-14:

video

--
Move to the Democratic People's Republic of Vivendi Universal (formerly known as Sweden) - officially democracy- and privacy-free since 2008-06-18!

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

So what we've learned so far is that if external power supply is lost and diesels are rendered unusable, there can be quite some difficulties in maintaining control of nuclear plants, right? Is it really that unlikely that those conditions are met? (I can imagine: attack, heavy snow+low temperature, and, of course, tsunamis)
As far as I am informed, there are plants where backup-batteries are not available, and anyway, as we've seen, they don't last long enough to cool the whole thing.
That's not what I'd call safe.

Neil Black
Member #7,867
October 2006
avatar

It's been said several times that these are an older reactor design...

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

gnolam said:

Animated plot of the quakes between 2011-03-09 and 2011-03-14:

Thanks. Nice..
I wonder though, could these pre- 8.9EQ small EQs be used as a warning sign. I'm sure they could hint, but.. This has to be somewhat reliable..

miran
Member #2,407
June 2002

Polybios said:

So what we've learned so far is that if external power supply is lost and diesels are rendered unusable, there can be quite some difficulties in maintaining control of nuclear plants, right?

Right.

Quote:

Is it really that unlikely that those conditions are met? (I can imagine: attack, heavy snow+low temperature, and, of course, tsunamis)

Yes, it's that unlikely. One other scenarion I can imagine is a commercial size airplane crashing right into the switchyard and then proceedning to take out not just one, but both tanks that hold diesel fuel. Extremely unlikely.

Quote:

That's not what I'd call safe.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think in the entire history of the nuclear industry this was the first time diesel generators were actually needed. Yes, in retrospect it seems very unsafe to only have backups that can be destroyed by a mere 10m tsunami that was caused by a little 8.9 tremmor in the ground, but then again, it was a 10m tsunami! :o

--
sig used to be here

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
avatar

type568 said:

I wonder though, could these pre- 8.9EQ small EQs be used as a warning sign. I'm sure they could hint, but.. This has to be somewhat reliable..

I wondered the same, but then again this might be the base level of earthquakes in that region. In this video you don't see what it looks like on any normal day.

axilmar
Member #1,204
April 2001

In 2007, a 6.8 earthquake in Japan created a problem in one of the reactors in the Kasiouwasaki station, the biggest nuclear plant with 7 nuclear reactors. The company tried to downplay the problem the first 24 hours, but afterwards they were forced to admit that the reactors were not designed to withstand such an earthquake.

Source

Japan took a lot of shortcuts with their nuclear reactors, and now they are paying the price.

gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
avatar

Polybios said:

Is it really that unlikely that those conditions are met? (I can imagine: attack, heavy snow+low temperature, and, of course, tsunamis)

Yes.
These were exceptional circumstances: an absolutely massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake (it got upgraded from 8.9, making it either the fourth or fifth strongest quake in the history of seismology) that first devastated the country, followed by a tsunami that simply razed everything hundreds of meters in from the shoreline in the affected areas.
Under normal circumstances, no matter what had happened at the plant, the plant operators could just request whatever they needed and get it there ASAP - personnel, external power, new generators, more fuel, more boric acid, special vehicles, or whatever.
But imagine trying to get help in the situation they were in, with bridges collapsed, power lines washed away, other power plants shut down, roads destroyed and blocked, thousands of people killed, injured and trapped, emergency services overwhelmed...

--
Move to the Democratic People's Republic of Vivendi Universal (formerly known as Sweden) - officially democracy- and privacy-free since 2008-06-18!

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
avatar

And even after all that consider that the plant itself hasn't had a complete melt down, or anything even really approaching a serious radiation emergency. Especially since its an older model plant.

That to me says nuclear power is rather safe.

--
Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
avatar

Latest reports say they've been using dihydrogen monoxide on the radioactive stuff! Some of it's reputed to be impure, as well! :o

They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas.

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

gnolam said:

These were exceptional circumstances: an absolutely massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake (it got upgraded from 8.9, making it either the fourth or fifth strongest quake in the history of seismology).

"Exceptional" and "history of seismology" don't fit together well. Earthquakes predate seismology quite significantly, precise data is only available since c. 1900, afaik. You can't really argue anything being "exceptional" from that, only because it didn't happen the last 100 years or so.
The point is: what might appear exceptional to seismology, given its short history, is totally natural to the earth.

type568 said:

I wonder though, could these pre- 8.9EQ small EQs be used as a warning sign. I'm sure they could hint, but.. This has to be somewhat reliable..

Wikipedia said:

Quote:

Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month. However, for well-understood faults seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the probability that an earthquake of a given size will affect a given location over a certain number of years. The overall ability to predict earthquakes either on an individual basis or on a statistical basis remains remote.

Once an earthquake has already begun, early warning devices can provide a few seconds' warning before major shaking arrives at a given location.

The precision of prediction is: years. You only get precise info a few seconds before the major shaking.

gnolam
Member #2,030
March 2002
avatar

Polybios said:

"Exceptional" and "history of seismology" don't fit together well. Earthquakes predate seismology quite significantly, precise data is only available since c. 1900, afaik. You can't really argue anything being "exceptional" from that, only because it didn't happen the last 100 years or so.

Luckily, there's this thing called history, where stuff like "enormous, destructive earthquakes" or "tsunamis" tends to get recorded...
And while we can't reconstruct the actual seismometer data, we can estimate the magnitude from descriptions of the event and the damage done. And that tells us that, yes, this is indeed exceptional. :P

Also, a hundred years of data is pretty darned good for most types of risk assessments.

--
Move to the Democratic People's Republic of Vivendi Universal (formerly known as Sweden) - officially democracy- and privacy-free since 2008-06-18!

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

gnolam said:

Also, a hundred years of data is pretty darned good for most types of risk assessments.

It's considered to be good due to lack of alternatives. It really doesn't cut the point though.

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

While the period of about 4000 years of written history is considerably longer than 100 years, it is still quite a short period of time compared to 4+ billions of years of earth's history, isn't it? :o

Still, there is no precise data for more than 100 years, and I doubt there is any data for anything before 1500. Cave-paintings don't count. :P

gnolam said:

Also, a hundred years of data is pretty darned good for most types of risk assessments.

Now don't mislead by saying "a hundred years of data". The type of data is quite important. That's just nonsense in this context.
Considering the severe risks of nuclear plants' accidents with possible effects on generations to come, I wouldn't judge those among those "most risks". ::)
Yawn.

anonymous
Member #8025
November 2006

Chile is known for big earthquakes. Do we have a record predating 1500s?

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

That's beside the point.
Japan is also "known for big earthquakes".
The point is, whether it is pointless to judge an earthquake "exceptional" or not, building highly critical buildings on the basis of such a judgement.

But all this discussion is futile, I hope they will be able to avoid further spread of this stuff :-/

X-G
Member #856
December 2000
avatar

I like how the assertion that "there is no data to prove it is exceptional!", while ignorant and false in and of itself, is somehow implied to also mean "therefore it is extremely common!".

Get educated. Modern nuclear power is more than safe enough (although more science is always better!), and the alternatives are not good enough to satisfy our energy needs. The "giga-risks" you are talking about do not exist.

--
Since 2008-Jun-18, democracy in Sweden is dead. | 悪霊退散!悪霊退散!怨霊、物の怪、困った時は ドーマン!セーマン!ドーマン!セーマン! 直ぐに呼びましょう陰陽師レッツゴー!



Go to: