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Credits go to amarillion, Ariesnl, Chris Katko, Dennis, Elias, Johan Halmén, m c, Polybios, raynebc, type568, and Yodhe23 for helping out!
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Brexit
Dennis
Member #1,090
July 2003
avatar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk

As German comedian Oliver Welke said after seeing that: "Bitte geht einfach." (Please just leave.)

:D

So, even though this post does not provide anything of substance to the discussion, at least it might give a good laugh to some of us.

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Dennis, that video is honestly making me want to stay in the EU.

Amarillion, thanks for that - it was definitely necessary. Perhaps you're unaware of just how compellingly the leave campaigners are coming across!

One argument coming from the leave campaigners is that the EU is on the verge of incorporating Turkey, which is apparently risky, not necessarily because if the Turks but because it would create a common border between the EU and Syria. The good news is that I actually found a rebuttal of that argument, from John Major. Turkey has apparently negotiated one thing, or met one of about 30 criteria for joining the EU, and a lot of the problems there (whatever they are - as I said, I don't know) would have to be resolved before it could happen. Meanwhile, every country in the EU could singlehandedly veto it.

Now what's interesting is that the above-linked video has a majority of dislikes. Is it fair criticism or is it just that there's a massively strong leave sentiment on YouTube? Could it be that the people on YouTube are the people with the most problems in life (hence the need for distraction) and therefore the most likely to want to shake up the system? Surely there must be at least one video on YouTube that argues for staying in the EU and is good - why is every one of them disliked?

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

EU is on the verge of incorporating Turkey

So that's why Merkel is bending over backwards to accommodate them.

Not to mention the cologne cover-ups.

[edit] So apparently my first link isn't working, so here's the full URL:

http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/merkel-okays-turkeys-request-to-charge-comedian/

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs
"Political Correctness is fascism disguised as manners" --George Carlin

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
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EU is on the verge of incorporating Turkey

My guess is that that won't happen in the next 20 years, perhaps never. The resistance to that happening is very great, also in normally pro-EU countries like the Netherlands. With the recent referendum in NL that rejected the association treaty with Ukraine, Dutch politicians are weary of even small steps towards EU expansion. To overcome that weariness, Turkey would have to show a massive, consistent, long-term change towards better human rights policies, and that's not going to happen under current leadership.

Having said that, the EU is in a tough spot. They want to reduce immigration from Syria, and for that they need the help of Turkey. Turkey is a country with many human rights issues, and it is a poor fit with the values of the EU. But you can't negotiate if there is nothing on the table. So they have to give up something to Turkey too, a lot of money, and probably also visa-free travel for the Turks. The choice is between pandering to the Turks or a mediterranean full of drowning refugees (and we'll probably end up with both).

I would argue again, that also this is a detail. The refugee crisis is a temporary effect, caused by war in Syria. The big picture of the EU remains the same, it is about peace, trade and cooperation. All the rest is just a political wind that can change direction from one year to the next.

Quote:

there's a massively strong leave sentiment on YouTube

I think youtube comment threads are probably not the best place to research an issue.

edit: one more thing. In the UK I often see arguments like "The euro is a failure", "immigration policy of the EU is a mess", "the EU needs to be reformed". If you hear these things over and over again, then it becomes almost impossible not to see the EU as a horrible mess. But...

The euro is a failure Depends on how you define failure. The Euro is a daily fact of life for 300M people. With the banking system unified, I can transfer money, set up automatic transfers, or manage direct debits to companies from Italy to Finland, with zero extra charges: no rate conversion fees or other banking charges. My bank's online banking service no longer has separate forms for foreign and local transfers, they are one and the same. Think what a great benefit this is if you want to start a small online business: 300M customers can reach you with ease. I'll admit that the Euro hasn't been kind to greece, but don't forget that the Greek themselves still wanted to stay in the Euro throughout the crisis. To them, the Euro still represents the future.

immigration policy of the EU is a mess Of course it is, but that is because immigration is inherently tough to deal with. You want to balance charity, humanity, human rights, security, protect low paying jobs, get young workers to pay for pensions in an aging population, and deal with an undercurrent of xenophobism that exists accross the continent. And then you have to negotiate an agreement with 28 partners. Would you be able to come up with any better solution?

the EU needs to be reformed Perhaps, but different people would like different reforms, so you have to look at who is saying this. For example, conservatives in the UK complain about the working hours directive of the EU. This is a policy that would be very much supported by Labour. So is the EU the problem, or is this right-wing politicians complaining about a left-wing policy? Does this come back to a sovereignty issue, are the tories complaining that they can't change a policy even when they have a majority in parliament? But then Scottish nationalists also have a point that they can't overturn rules set in Westminster. If tories managed to dismiss the working hours directive, then perhaps SNP would like to re-instate it at the Scottish level. What this boils down to is a refusal to compromise. But you can't cooperate with 28 different countries without some compromise.

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

By the way, the EU is bound by the "Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union" which defines several civil rights for citizens of EU member states. According to Wikipedia, the UK government was afraid its citizens could actually go to the European Court of Justice to attempt to enforce their Charter rights in the UK (and it feared increasing cost for business), so they negotiated a protocol ensuring the powers of the ECJ would not extend over UK law.
Now, who is "taking away our rights" here? :P

Note that social and worker's rights such as "the right to fair working conditions, protection against unjustified dismissal, and access to health care, social and housing assistance" are also a part of these rights.

edit: There are also articles about the protection of personal data, the environment, consumer protection, and a "right to good administration". I didn't know! :P

The refugee crisis is a temporary effect, caused by war in Syria.

My impression is that its "European effects" are in part caused by Merkel's stupid way of dealing with it. Her whole "refugee"-policy has been a total mess. Merkel is Stalinist by upbringing (she grew up in former communist East Germany), a bad democrat and an even worse European. Due to her Stalinist-autocrat style unilateral decision making, often involving 180° turns, combined with her lack of understanding politics beyond clinging to power, she has managed to bring far-right populists about 20% of the vote in regional elections first time since the 1930s, as far as I know. It's a total disaster and if the other leading political personell wasn't constantly making the impression of being even more incompetent, she would already have stepped down. >:(

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Everyone who is thinking it would be nice to have control of our borders should read this. :'(

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

raynebc
Member #11,908
May 2010

After reading that I have even less desire to ever visit another country. Some of the incidents mentioned in that article and comments seem like my country treats legal visitation more harshly than a fair amount of illegal immigration.

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

So after Brexit, they could treat people from the EU like this, too. :D

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
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Yep, I have a friend from USA with a similar experience when he went to the UK for a conference.

About taking fingerprints though - that's done routinely when entering the USA, tourist or business trip.

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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Polls suggest it's gonna happen. It'll hurt. Good thing I don't trade UK stocks, it's gonna be nightmare to analyze what's gonna be hurt least. I bet some companies gonna even benefit somehow.

Append: About immigration crisis.. It's not as simple as political wind. It's millions of people who are likely to stay & who aren't all that in to your system of values. Now this has two points:

A) They're younger than your average, so they're gonna do simple job allowing you to become a doctor, financial adviser, engineer & etc'
They're mostly without education, & are poor competition to EU natives, or immigrants from "whiter" countries like Russia. You can say you'll benefit economically from them.

B) They're not gonna assimilate as easy as you'd like, and are gonna be an aesthetic problem for generations. There will be changes of culture, system of values, look(both clothes, & genetic) and a hell lot of other things which people don't want in their homes. *

*- I do hope I didn't cross the border of political-correctness here, although I'm aware I'm at the border.

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
avatar

Indeed, it looks like it will happen. At least it will be... informative... May you live in interesting times...

type568 said:

are gonna be an aesthetic problem for generations

aesthetic problem? Strange choice of words.

By the way, I have been one of those EU immigrants to the UK at one point. I stayed only for two years though.

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

By the way, I have been one of those EU immigrants to the UK at one point. I stayed only for two years though.

I don't think they're too uncomfortable with people from Netherlands immigrating, they surely want the Syrians way less though.

Aesthetic problem for generations.. Well, I see it about like this: an immigrant is different from native, it's always the case. However, if you can't distinguish his children from children of natives it's fine. If you can't, you get changes you may not want to have in what you consider your home. And I don't talk skin color, rather habits.

I'm quite sure Brits are way less comfortable with these changes than say, Israelis or current Americans, who wouldn't prosper if not the immigration.

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Well, today's voting day!

I watched Thunderf00t debate with Sargon of Akkad for nearly three hours.

video

I personally felt Thunderf00t had the more consistent arguments, while Sargon seemed to have blocked out how very, very wrong the British voting system is...
video

...and how little hope we have of changing it. It also stuck in my mind what Thunderf00t said: that apparently Germany is considering issuing German passports to Syrian refugees, and if they do that, then Britain, Brexit or not, will have no way of distinguishing between those people and other Germans when deciding whom to allow in without visas.

Incidentally, on the subject of Islam and whether its people are generally dangerous in large numbers and all that 'racist' talk, the point has been raised to me that there may be just as many native criminals in the various European countries, but the difference is that criminals with a shared minority origin/religion are more likely to club together than native criminals. The question of whether Germany is treating Muslim criminals equally harshly to how it treats its own criminals, I don't know the answer to, but I think it's fair to say that if the police chief and media are trying to keep it secret that some crimes such as the Cologne attacks were perpetrated by Muslims, that may simply be because lots of people are racist and will assume all Muslims are like that, and it doesn't necessarily mean those people are actually getting lenient treatment because of being Muslims (which in my view would be bad). I'd be interested to know if anyone has any reliable material on this subject. And, for what it's worth, it's not really as if Britain does things any differently from the EU - if you believe that large groups of Muslims are dangerous (even if it's just because of the countries many happen to have come from rather than the religion itself), then we have plenty of places where they are allowed to congregate and reinforce their own messed-up values amongst themselves without being forced to adapt to the country they're living in. I assume that isn't the EU's fault, because how could it be?

Meanwhile, I've been watching the introductory videos here, and the one about regions and nations in particular...

video

...was interesting because it showed how the net cash flow between EU and certain regions of the UK (such as Wales) is in those regions' favour even though the UK taken as a whole contributes more to the EU, and it also talked about the Principle of Subsidiarity which says that the EU cannot (or should not? not sure) act to solve a problem if a solution at more local levels of government is sufficient.

None of this changes the fact that it's very difficult to know whom to believe, and if I just look at what I find convenient, I like having the freedom to go and work in Germany, and I'm glad my other half has the freedom to research German literature in England too (as if). So, I'll be voting remain :)

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

Worst case, in 5 years, Britians rejoin the EU if they don't like being apart.

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs
"Political Correctness is fascism disguised as manners" --George Carlin

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

I'm watching BBC One. Early results from Newcastle and Sunderland are further towards leave than anyone expected.

I fully expect to stay up all night. Got some food cooking now. :)

There's a bit of pathetic fallacy going on: we seem to have stormy weather and semi-power-cuts, although my computer hasn't lost power yet. Those things we heard about the apocalypse coming if we leave feel true :o

[EDIT]
Something strange is going on. So far we've had 9 local authorities declare the counts for their areas. Foyle is not one of them, yet I think the BBC may have accidentally half-announced some results for Foyle, and it now has higher figures for remain than, say, the Guardian.

BBC1 says 299,598 want to leave vs 280,820 to remain so far.
Guardian says 257,816 want to leave vs 227,726 to remain so far.

I guess it'll clear up sooner or later...

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Derezo
Member #1,666
April 2001
avatar

Wow, I really expected you guys to remain. :-/

Here's a link to The Guardian for anyone interested.

"He who controls the stuffing controls the Universe"

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

I still hope we do. The big cities are coming out in favour of remain. It's looking a bit bleak though.

I think the difference is that the BBC have partial results for Northern Ireland and The Guardian don't.

2:33 a.m. and I didn't have the foresight to stock up on chocolate while the shops were open ::)

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

OMG. David Cameron might have to step down tomorrow if they vote OUT.

MWAHAH

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs
"Political Correctness is fascism disguised as manners" --George Carlin

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Nigel Farage has given a victory speech

video

which reminded me of this guy
video

:o

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

This could be history in the making!

Hope everything goes well for you British chaps! But destabilizing "the powers that be" sounds like a super win for, as one of your leaders said, "Real people" instead of multi-national corporations.

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs
"Political Correctness is fascism disguised as manners" --George Carlin

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

Pound -8.5%
S&P 500 -5%
Germany's DAX -9%
UK FTSE is -8% as well, making it about -16% in $.

I wonder if these leavers voted the same way if the knew.

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

The going opinion seems to be that the leave vote came from the poorest people. They probably can't see how those numbers mean anything to them.

I doubt the EU is even remotely responsible for their problems, but we have some very insistent liars in government - the remain camp of course didn't at any point say "Don't blame the EU, blame us - we'll reform," and the leave camp blamed the EU probably just because it was an easy target with the referendum coming up. I'm not talking about all the politicians here, but certainly some of the most prominent ones. And it is possible I'm wrong about them being liars, or that the truth is somewhere in between.

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

This should trigger another vote from Scotland, this time it'll be a leave as well. By the way, the count of unhappy with the EU in France is even bigger than this of UK.

Johan Halmén
Member #1,550
September 2001

What UK?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Years of thorough research have revealed that the red "x" that closes a window, really isn't red, but white on red background.

Years of thorough research have revealed that what people find beautiful about the Mandelbrot set is not the set itself, but all the rest.

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

In my impression, ignorance and frustration have prevailed. I can understand the latter, but I doubt the EU was the right target for it. Anyway, good luck.
Edit:
If Britain wants access to the single market, they will have to agree to allowing unrestricted free movement of workers/employees - as Norway ans Switzerland had to. So shutting the borders is probably not going to work. They'll also have to pay for access to the single market, but now they will not be able to decide how that money is used. Plus, they will have to conform to lots of EU regulations - as Norway and Switzerland have to - without the power to influence them.
We'll also probably see some of the banks move to the continent or Ireland.

I think we'll have to get used to seeing the Trump-Johnson hairstyle on TV.
And Cameron will go down in history as one of the worst prime ministers.



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