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Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Should Britain leave the EU?

I think we should. Basically my perception is that the leave campaign has highlighted one very important problem: that EU officials are unelected and therefore have the opportunity to be dictatorial. There are other more specific problems too such as way the EU has a common currency but doesn't have common fiscal law, or free movement of people but insufficient cooperation of intelligence services and such. In any case, it's all very compelling to me. Meanwhile, the stay campaign is mostly just trying to scare people into the 'better the devil you know' (than the one you don't) mentality, while also making outlandish claims such as 'trade with the EU will stop' (which to me it seems it clearly won't) or badly worded comments such as 'We're a world leader and therefore we need Europe' (to lead us?).

Betting odds seem to indicate a larger payout if we stay, which suggests more people are betting that we will leave. Or could this just mean that risk-takers (betters) would take the risk of leaving? Surely not, since they are trying to predict the masses' decision, not specifying their own preference. (Link - be careful not to misread the pie chart, which is *not* indicating a stay/leave ratio.) [EDIT: actually I suppose it's difficult to say whether betting odds are a genuine indicator of likelihood of outcome, since the current odds, and rounding thereof, always affect the likelihood of future bets.]

Finally, in this article, the first graph shows a 'poll of polls' indicating figures close to 50-50 but nearly always slightly in favour of staying. In contrast, the vote at the bottom of the article has a resounding outcome of 72% wanting to leave. I'm inclined to think there's some kind of statistical flaw in the 'poll of polls', but then, I found the article simply by Googling 'Brexit predictions' and I don't know what the Telegraph's usual political bias is.

Thoughts?

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Johan Halmén
Member #1,550
September 2001

EU went too far. I voted no, when we had a referendum about joining, back in the 90's. A lose community would have been enough. Now it's almost a federal union, but not fully one. It would function better if it was. But the smaller each country would be, as well as its citizens. I want to be a Finn, not an EU citizen. OTOH I do believe a lose European community could continue keeping the peace. But EU won't and can't take a step back.

Maybe a Brexit could force EU to turn into a EC that it once was.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Years of thorough research have revealed that the red "x" that closes a window, really isn't red, but white on red background.

Years of thorough research have revealed that what people find beautiful about the Mandelbrot set is not the set itself, but all the rest.

Peter Hull
Member #1,136
March 2001

I disagree on Europe. It seems to me that most studies put out by people or bodies that I trust and respect are in favour of staying. In the leave camp we have Farage, Gove, Boris Johnson et al. Their argument seems to be predicated on the assumption that we will instantaneously be able to re-negotiate 30 years of trade deals in such a way that we will retain all the benefits and lose all the liabilities.

In my own job (medical devices) it's very nice to be able to work with harmonised standards across Europe and if we were no longer part of that, they would inevitably drift apart due to favouring national interests.

Great Britain is not what it once was, and probably never will be again. I believe that if we pursue an isolationist strategy we will end up as little better than a historical theme park. If we had to throw our lot in with someone it had better be the 'Europeans' - their common values are best aligned to our own in my experience. The US 'special relationship' is nothing of the kind and only remains for as long as America deems it convenient.

Finally the Telegraph is the homeplace of old-school conservative right-wing thinking. I respect their viewpoints but they are not mine.

This puts me in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with David Cameron. :-/

Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

Please don't leave. :-/

You'll lose the possibility to influence this peculiar club from within. There are others who would miss British influence: When a large north-western country leaves, balance will shift to south-east, so to speak. ^^

We're still not through with economic crisis (for like 8 years?). Frankly, what actual problems will be solved by leaving the EU? You don't have the Euro anyway. :)

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

I misread the betting odds. It seems betters think staying is more likely. This becomes obvious if you click on a 'stay' bet and a 'leave' bet and review the potential total returns on the bet, which are greater for a 'leave' bet implying they expect less likelihood of having to pay it. But that still begs the question of whether betting odds really reflect people's opinion of the likelihood of outcome, rather than the proportions of bets each way which may depend on bets made so far, personal sentiments, rounding errors and such.

While I can't resist reading an article or two every day to see what the current sentiments are, I am coming round to thinking I have other things I'd rather spend my time on :-/

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Johan Halmén
Member #1,550
September 2001

:'(

It's sad that a great part of actual political movements in the whole world consists of the force from racist and xenophobic people. We know that there are racists and xenophobics[1] among us. And we also know that such people tend to lean to the political right wings. They tend to support Trump. And probably they tend to support brexit, too. And that's a pity, because they will shed all the other ideas. I don't know about Trump, he might have some fine ideas, too. But all I see is a misogynist racist. And there might be fine ideas building up the idea of brexit. I just don't like the ugly ideas and their supporters, who will be an important part of the voters.

References

  1. Sorry for using this word. I know fobia is something you can do very little to. I'd rather use another word that would underline the negative attitude against everything foreign and strange.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Years of thorough research have revealed that the red "x" that closes a window, really isn't red, but white on red background.

Years of thorough research have revealed that what people find beautiful about the Mandelbrot set is not the set itself, but all the rest.

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Is Trump really racist, or only nationalist? For example, is there any evidence that he would disadvantage black people or any other race if they legitimately live in the US?

And misogynist? I wasn't even aware of such a criticism of Trump.

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

GullRaDriel
Member #3,861
September 2003
avatar

The question is not good, Bruce. The good question is "Can one be a nationalist without being racist" and the answer is no.

As for the black people: there is already ton of problems involving black people. How come there are that much shooting from police to unarmed black people ? Do you really think a nationalist would help ?

Same as the woman. You just have to try to search for 'Trump and women' and see for yourself the ton of quotes.

That guy just stings as much as Hillary. He's just a big lie, as his companies steaks were.

Greets from France ;-)

"Code is like shit - it only smells if it is not yours"
Allegro Wiki, full of examples and articles !!

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Yes, nationalism and racism are two different things, and also outcome isn't the same as intention - even if nationalism results in racism flourishing, that doesn't mean the nationalist intended racism to flourish.

As for Trump and women, his insults are funny and usually directed at specific people who might have deserved it, and the article I found smacked of barrel-scraping and overreaction.

My 32 GB memory set has just arrived - I'll install it now and see if it works, and hopefully the upgrade from 8 GB will help my virtual orchestra software not to crash :)

[EDIT]
Installed and seems to work, except Windows 7 Home Premium only allows me to use 16 GB of it. Perhaps I should consider Windows 10 after all, as it lifts that limit. Honestly the only thing holding me back is that I prefer how Windows 7 looks :(

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Johan Halmén
Member #1,550
September 2001

"Can one be a nationalist without being racist" and the answer is no.

I wish I could say I'm a nationalist. I love my country, I love my mother tongue Swedish, I might love Finnish even more just because it's so ... well, Finnish. I love Sibelius, Finnish folk music, Kalevala etc. But I guess I can never call me a racist, unless I start to hate other people. I love all other forms of national culture, too. Czech national romantic music with Dvořák and Smetana. Irish folk music. And of course there's a special bond to one's own culture.

Some refugees that came last winter to Finland, to my home town which is bilingual, insisted on getting to learn both Finnish and Swedish, because they came from a bilingual culture and they know the value of it. Fine by me. Though if they would find learning two new languages too difficult, I'm fine with them learning only Finnish, which is and always will be the most important language in Finland. Perhaps there's a little racist in me after all, if I'd require refugees who settle down in Finland to at least learn Finnish and most of all learn Finnish culture and Finnish manners (the good ones, not the bad ones).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Years of thorough research have revealed that the red "x" that closes a window, really isn't red, but white on red background.

Years of thorough research have revealed that what people find beautiful about the Mandelbrot set is not the set itself, but all the rest.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

I have absolutely loved this election cycle and I hope Trump wins.

Why? Because it has absolutely highlighted to me how much of a liberal "Hillary election machine" the media is. It's non-stop propaganda.

Trump is an asshole. But he's the first asshole in decades who is too rich to be bought.

Obama was a perfect example. Charming guy. Ran on a platform of change. He won a freaking advertising award for that. And what did he change? Almost nothing.

Basically, the USA government has become a system where the true people in power pay for candidates to get elected, so that they owe the corporations when they get in. Democrats and Republicans are the exact same party. They both bailed out Wall Street. They both refused to prosecute anyone on Wall Street. They talk about emotional, hot-button issues to distract everyone but they have no ACTUAL plans of changing those issues. Why give away an issue guaranteed to polarize your voting base every year and get you re-elected?

And those people who are pulling the strings? They're not subjected to elections. They don't cease being powerful every 4 years. They lobby, gain power, and have more power the next time around.

The reason Trump is so damn popular is because of the non-stop media onslaught against him. The media is so damn self-serving and under-handed they don't even realize they've managed to make A BILLIONAIRE look like the underdog. Every day, it's a new article of "Here's why he won't win." then when he does win something, it's "Here's why that win doesn't matter." You don't have to be a genius to pick up on that pattern.

And if you truly hate the powers that be, it stands to reason you're going to vote for the person that the-powers-that-be are afraid of and constantly attacking. A vote for Trump is the best chance we've had in my lifetime to give a giant middle-finger to our entire government. It's saying "We hate you so much, we'd vote for a crazy person over four more years of your snake-tongued crap."

And if he wins? Politics will have forever changed. All a sudden, a foreigner-with-money will be a plausible threat to all of those political incumbents. And the more threats there are, the more chances politicians will actually start listening to us for a change.

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs

Mark Oates
Member #1,146
March 2001
avatar

They talk about emotional, hot-button issues to distract everyone

They talk about emotional, hot-button issues in order to get attention.

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Like this issue?

{"name":"the-right-to-bear-arms.jpg","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/e\/2\/e26a1d6d95cda94ba973f907967a3aa5.jpg","w":500,"h":530,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/e\/2\/e26a1d6d95cda94ba973f907967a3aa5"}the-right-to-bear-arms.jpg

Not my joke - it came up at the meal after our orchestra day, but unsurprisingly the Internet got there first ;)

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
avatar

I think that it's wrong to assume that because Trump is [allegedly] wealthy that he'll be unbuyable. Odds are he became rich by being bought. And he likes being rich. I'm sure he'd love to be richer. This is like cutting out the middleman politician. You're proposing to just put the lobbyist in office directly. I'm sure he has many existing allies and friends within the business world that will appreciate his newfound power. And I'm sure he'll be more than willing to pander to them at the expense of the average American. What you need is not a rich man in office. What you need is for the country to hold the office accountable to the people. Do a good job of that and the lobbyist will fall away and only serious candidates will dare apply. We face the same basic problem in Canada. How do you get corrupt people to revoke their own power? Unfortunately, probably the only way is to physically show up and break the door down. Which means a few people will probably be shot so we'll need enough of us to drain their ammunition stores.

Johan Halmén
Member #1,550
September 2001

Yip! The richer, the more they want to be bought. The richer, the more they want to escape to tax havens.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Years of thorough research have revealed that the red "x" that closes a window, really isn't red, but white on red background.

Years of thorough research have revealed that what people find beautiful about the Mandelbrot set is not the set itself, but all the rest.

MiquelFire
Member #3,110
January 2003
avatar

>Installed and seems to work, except Windows 7 Home Premium only allows me to use 16 GB of it. Perhaps I should consider Windows 10 after all, as it lifts that limit. Honestly the only thing holding me back is that I prefer how Windows 7 looks :(

I was going to say use the Windows Anytime Upgrade, but it seems they shut that down.

---
Febreze (and other air fresheners actually) is just below perfumes/colognes, and that's just below dead skunks in terms of smells that offend my nose.
MiquelFire.red | +Me
Windows 8 is a toned, stylish, polished professional athlete. But it’s wearing clown makeup, and that creates a serious image problem. ~PCWorld Article

Derezo
Member #1,666
April 2001
avatar

Disclaimer: Canadian.

I have absolutely loved this election cycle and I hope Trump wins.

I desperately want him to win the GOP nomination. His chances are looking pretty grim now. I don't think it's possible for him to win a general election, but the more damage he does to the Republican party the better.

"He who controls the stuffing controls the Universe"

GullRaDriel
Member #3,861
September 2003
avatar

What Derezo said looks plausible for me.

"Code is like shit - it only smells if it is not yours"
Allegro Wiki, full of examples and articles !!

Mark Oates
Member #1,146
March 2001
avatar

Derezo said:

His chances are looking pretty grim now.

Not so sure about that. When you look at the numbers, he's pretty much the nominee at this point. The press would have you believe otherwise (because it's in their best interest).

Also when you look at the numbers for the general election, we're in the clear. There's no way Trump will be able to win the general.

Now go out and vote. Your vote makes a difference!

{"name":"610287","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/7\/f\/7f6f2f4f8b4aaa010f9a4f435c72b59b.jpg","w":750,"h":750,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/7\/f\/7f6f2f4f8b4aaa010f9a4f435c72b59b"}610287

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Does that make her a peasant plucker?

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Peter Hull
Member #1,136
March 2001

Does that make her a peasant plucker?

No, a pleasant ... no wait, that doesn't work. :-/

I'm sure there's some political analogy that can be made with that half-full pint.

Also, this thread now takes a perceptible time to load and render on my comp. Keep going people we will blow Leverton's server before long.

MiquelFire
Member #3,110
January 2003
avatar

The moment we get a new page, I bet the load time will jump for you. I'm assuming we're doing too much stuff that needs JS to do things with right now.

---
Febreze (and other air fresheners actually) is just below perfumes/colognes, and that's just below dead skunks in terms of smells that offend my nose.
MiquelFire.red | +Me
Windows 8 is a toned, stylish, polished professional athlete. But it’s wearing clown makeup, and that creates a serious image problem. ~PCWorld Article

Johan Halmén
Member #1,550
September 2001

For me, this is page 5. I know, I'm a traitor.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Years of thorough research have revealed that the red "x" that closes a window, really isn't red, but white on red background.

Years of thorough research have revealed that what people find beautiful about the Mandelbrot set is not the set itself, but all the rest.

MiquelFire
Member #3,110
January 2003
avatar

I'm on page 5 as well, the the thread just loads as fast as any other thread for me.

I forgot you can change the post per page count. It seems 100 is the most you can set. If Peter's setting is unlimited, then that might be the issue he's having. Those of us who have pages, we're not seeing slowdowns yet.

---
Febreze (and other air fresheners actually) is just below perfumes/colognes, and that's just below dead skunks in terms of smells that offend my nose.
MiquelFire.red | +Me
Windows 8 is a toned, stylish, polished professional athlete. But it’s wearing clown makeup, and that creates a serious image problem. ~PCWorld Article

GullRaDriel
Member #3,861
September 2003
avatar

i'm not paging at all. Working fine ^^

"Code is like shit - it only smells if it is not yours"
Allegro Wiki, full of examples and articles !!

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