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Annexing Uktaine. Objections?
type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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@Katko

After the revolution in Kiev(Ukrainian capital), the 80%+ Russian Crimea declares itself independent from Kiev & is to hold referendum about its independence on 30th March(or so its officials said).
Russian troops go out of existing base + cross the border with Russia, beggin' Ukrainian troops to give up arms(by begging I mean no ultimatums or violence), diggin' defense line "from Kiev side"(it's a peninsula so no hard). West goes nuts(officially), China supports(officially).

I tried to make it as neutral as possible, with only facts.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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I think your facts might be a little biased :-x

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type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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OK. Could you please point out which ones exactly?

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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It's more your wording, and choice of things to mention, and leave out.

Kiev actually agreed to the referendum, so there is absolutely no need for Russia to move thousands of troops into a sovereign nation.

And I'm not sure rolling armed troops and tanks into a city, and holding a government building is not hostile.

To be honest, I don't see the point of Russia's actions at all. There is no reason what so ever for it. Pretty sure Ukraine can fend for itself.

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type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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I purposefully did not offer judgement, and did not say what for did the troops move in. I triple checked that, as there maybe a lot of reasons. So did I make any arguable statement in my previous post? :P

However:

wiki said:

A referendum on status within Ukraine is scheduled to be held in Crimea on 30 March 2014[1] (originally set for 25 May 2014, but pulled forward). It was approved by the Supreme Council of Crimea on February 27, 2014, amid the ongoing crisis in the region. The Central Election Commission of Ukraine has denounced the referendum and has stated that the Crimean authorities do not possess the legal jurisdiction to conduct such a referendum. The referendum "appears to be" for greater autonomy, not independence from Ukraine.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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type568 said:

So did I make any arguable statement in my previous post? :P

Leaving things out, and wording make a big difference you know ;)

Quote:

However:

Hmmm. Sorry, when I was reading the article on the referendum, I was mixing up the governments. That sucks. The region really should be able to vote
on its own future. Especially given the reaction they had towards an invading force... Clearly they don't want to be part of Ukraine. Forcing the issue is just going to lead to more tension.

append:

type568 said:

(by begging I mean no ultimatums or violence)

By begging, I think you actually meant threatening.

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Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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Leaving things out, and wording make a big difference you know ;)

Well. I wrote only the most significant stuff. To expand it I should also add the doubts in legitimacy of the Crimean prime minister(although a vote for referendum of 81/84 makes it sound legit anyways).

Yet on the other side, I should also add

wiki said:

Among of the first laws passed by this new parliament was the cancellation of the official status of the Russian language; there were also plans announced to consider further measures against the language

For a Russian speaking region. Really.

And there are many other things that matter.

Quote:

By begging, I think you actually meant threatening.

Well. I didn't like the word because it works if you come armed to unarmed people. Or if you bring tanks or something..
Perhaps those few who did give up weapons were actually threatened. But if you're in a position you can be threatened you DO give up the weapons. Or at least you say what happens what if weapons not given up, and all media highlighted there were no ultimatums or whatsoever.

Append:

Quote:

Hmmm. Sorry, when I was reading the article on the referendum, I was mixing up the governments. That sucks. The region really should be able to vote
on its own future. Especially given the reaction they had towards an invading force... Clearly they don't want to be part of Ukraine. Forcing the issue is just going to lead to more tension.

They didn't want it since start. The article I gave link to is a good history lesson about the topic. The point is that they never hated it enough to make their own revolution. Not to mention it isn't certain they can.
Well, now they can.

Max Savenkov
Member #4,613
May 2004
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In the news: several more cities are reported to be willing to join Crimea if it referendum succeeds. I'm a bit confused by this news item, because it's not clear whether it's only cities themselves, or with their respective territories. Also, I'm not sure how could they "join" autonomous republic of Crimea at all...

Odessa is a vital sea port for Ukrainian economy. I heard that nobody dared to touch it during recent disturbances for the fear that import would be totally halted.

Also: according to BBC, the West can do relatively little to pressure Russia. The biggest threat is to freeze foreign assets and accounts of Putin's circle and to refuse visas to them, but I'm not sure this will be quite effective. Such actions could even be used by Putin to root out those susceptible to Western influence from government apparatus. This is where he differs from Yanukovitch: his exit strategy does not involve plundering country's treasury and running.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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type568 said:

Well. I didn't like the word because it works if you come armed to unarmed people. Or if you bring tanks or something..
Perhaps those few who did give up weapons were actually threatened. But if you're in a position you can be threatened you DO give up the weapons. Or at least you say what happens what if weapons not given up, and all media highlighted there were no ultimatums or whatsoever.

I see it as an ultimatum. "Cooperate or we kill you". that's a pretty serious ultimatum.

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"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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"Cooperate or we kill you"

No one is ready to kill anyone, that's the sweet part. Actually there were reports of some shooting by an Ukrainian soldier, who got injured by a flashbang afterwards. I don't think anyone has said they're going to kill anyone, not like we can know. But in such scenarios things don't escalate without anyone being shot.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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You don't have to say it out loud. Say you walk into up to someone and point a gun at them. What does that say?

Actions are louder than words as they say. so what if they haven't shot anyone yet. They've already instigated things. If anything happens, its because Russia is there meddling.

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Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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They agreed not to point guns at each other(not sure what is the source, but some news service with articles in English, I think it was the Guardian). Perhaps before they did, point at each other. I wonder if they were smiling then.

Party's over.

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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Yeah, I don't really see the difference either way.

If I walked down the street here with a semi-auto, even if I wasn't pointing it anywhere or at anyone, I would be shot if I didn't listen to the police.

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Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

pkrcel
Member #14,001
February 2012

But if you see an armed SWAT squad you aren't expecting any of them to be chased off.

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Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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pkrcel said:

But if you see an armed SWAT squad you aren't expecting any of them to be chased off.

Sure, the armed SWAT are trained and employed by my government. And would likely be the ones that end up shooting me.

Quote:

Party's over. [t.co]

Wargames. Haha.

I wonder if anyone ever told putin that the only way to win is to not play the game?

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Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Max Savenkov
Member #4,613
May 2004
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And The Onion delivers as usual!

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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*cough*

--
Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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pkrcel
Member #14,001
February 2012

I'm unfortuantely disconnected from the close east politics....

@type: is this Ukraine crisis some sort of Georgia Reloaded? (albeit with significative differences?)

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type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
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As of Georgia, make sure you're appropriately informed. Today it is a concensus Georgia has "started shooting first", it is important.

In Ukraine, a 60%+ Russian Crimea, found itself a part of country that has canceled the official status of Russian language, and denied the Crimean authorities the right to have a referendum on it's legal status(either to stay with Ukraine, or Russia). (Crimea wants to vote to go, the capital says "no".)

Russia has intervened to secure the referrendum. I won't be surprised if to rig it too, but I can't imagine it not gaining majorty of votes in either case.

Well, the west condemns Russia's actions of course. When wasn't it the case?

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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Who knows. All I know is that Russia overstepped its authority. The US and EU should have not been meddling, and the new Ukrainian government shouldn't have revoked Crimean's right for referendum. It's a big old clusterfsck.

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Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Max Savenkov
Member #4,613
May 2004
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It's like everyone involved is working together to make things worse! News sound crazier every day.

OICW
Member #4,069
November 2003
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type568 said:

In Ukraine, a 60%+ Russian Crimea, found itself a part of country that has canceled the official status of Russian language, and denied the Crimean authorities the right to have a referendum on it's legal status(either to stay with Ukraine, or Russia). (Crimea wants to vote to go, the capital says "no".)

Who says yes? Crimean officials who stepped into power backed up by unmarked Russian troops. Sounds a bit shady, don't you think? There's lot of people that don't want to join Russia. And I bet there's lots of them who are accounted for in the 60% Russian majority. Only the most vocal people are now heard, there are news of pro-Russian protestors being forced to attend the protests by their bosses.

The referendum should have been held by the end of the March, no suddenly it will be held next week. The vote was passed under the pressure created by the presence of heavily armed Russian soldiers. What does that tell you?

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pkrcel
Member #14,001
February 2012

type568 said:

As of Georgia, make sure you're appropriately informed. Today it is a concensus Georgia has "started shooting first" [en.wikipedia.org], it is important.

More or less what I was talking about: at the time the general Western approach was that Russia was "invading" but things ended up being the reverse (sort of).

I suspect that in this case crappy Ukraine politcs are the main "offensive" and the cathalist for the Russian intervention, that is the difference I was speaking about

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