Allegro.cc Forums » Off-Topic Ordeals » Bitcoin - P2P currency

 This thread is locked; no one can reply to it.
 Bitcoin - P2P currency
 decepto Member #7,102 April 2006 Today I was thinking about how one would go about forecasting the future value of 1 bitcoin.For a thought experiment lets assume that as of today, bitcoins as a currency are of equal monetary value to that of US dollars, Ceteris paribus. The find the exchange rate between bitcoins and USD, one would just need to find the ratio between the two currency's total money supply:```total number of bitcoins / total number of USD ``` The money supply of bitcoins is easy to determine. Determining the money supply for USD is a bit more difficult. For argument's sake, lets use a conservative figure: the current reported monetary base.Using this data, the current approximate money supply of bitcoins is 6,000,000. The current approximate money supply of USD is 2,400,000,000,000 (2.4 Trillion).The USD to bitcoin ratio would therefor be : 2,400,000,000,000 / 6,000,000 = .0000025The bitcoin to USD ratio would be : 6,000,000 / 2,400,000,000,000 = 400,000.Food for thought. --------------------------------------------------Boom!
 Dustin Dettmer Member #3,935 October 2003 Hm, so if bitcoins took over us dollars a single bitcoin would be worth 33k. That's a nice thought -- I think I'll hold onto my 43.25 bitcoins.
 Edgar Reynaldo Major Reynaldo May 2007 Math check :2400/6 = 4006/2400 = .0025Not sure what that proves though.
 decepto Member #7,102 April 2006 Edgar Reynaldo said: Math check :2400/6 = 4006/2400 = .0025 Can you explain where these numbers come from?Edit: 2.4 trillion is 2.4 million million.Edit 2: Sorry, I meant to say 6 million, and I accidentally wrote 6 billion. I've updated the post above. --------------------------------------------------Boom!
 Dustin Dettmer Member #3,935 October 2003 Google says:2.4 trillion / 6 million = four hundred thousand6 million / 2.4 trillion = 2.5 × 10-6 (ie 0.0000025)
 Edgar Reynaldo Major Reynaldo May 2007 decepto said: The USD to bitcoin ratio would therefor be : 2,400,000,000,000 / 6,000,000,000 = .000003The bitcoin to USD ratio would be : 6,000,000,000 / 2,400,000,000,000 = 33,333. Your figures show 2.4 Trillion to 6 Billion, which gives the ratios I just posted. But you actually said there were 2.4 Trillion US Dollars and 6 Million Bitcoins, so that makes the ratios (after dividing top and bottom by 1,000,000) :2,400,000/6 = 400,0006/2,400,000 = 0.0000025
 decepto Member #7,102 April 2006 I knew my math degree would come in handy Thank you for catching that, I've updated in the post. --------------------------------------------------Boom!
 Dustin Dettmer Member #3,935 October 2003 I think 6 million is the wrong number.https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#Early_adopters_are_unfairly_rewardedIt looks like the actual number is 21 million, so:2.4 trillion / 21 million = 114 285.714Which means my 43.25 coins would be worth \$4,942,857.13 .
 decepto Member #7,102 April 2006 Dustin Dettmer said:I think 6 million is the wrong number. There are currently 6 million in circulation, roughly speaking.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.pngEdit:Well, I found a kind soul on Reddit to sell me 10 bitcoins. I bought them at \$5.50 USD. We'll see where this goes... --------------------------------------------------Boom!
 weapon_S Member #7,859 October 2006 decepto said:Well, I found a kind soul on Reddit to sell me 10 bitcoins. I bought them at \$5.50 USD. It could be me, but someone here doesn't know the proper exchange rate. How did you make 3.25 Bc, Dustin?
 Dustin Dettmer Member #3,935 October 2003 I bought them using Paypal before it got blocked.
 BAF Member #2,981 December 2002 Bump, to keep it alive. I'm interested in seeing where this goes - I'm trying to find someone to sell me some over PP at a good exchange rate, now that it's on the rise after today's drop. I'd bid on mtgox, but I'm waiting for dwolla to verify my account.
 decepto Member #7,102 April 2006 Dustin Dettmer said:What's going on? Should I sell or wait? So far I've turned my \$40 into \$170. Please tell me you didn't sell them. Your 43.25 Bitcoins are now worth ~375 USD. --------------------------------------------------Boom!
bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006

decepto said:

Please tell me you didn't sell them. Your 43.25 Bitcoins are now worth ~375 USD.

Unless the rise in value of Bitcoins is predictable there's no shame at all in cashing them in ASAP while there's a very reasonable return on your investment because if you wait too long the tables may turn. It doesn't matter if you would have made more money if you waited because just as easily you might have lost it all if you waited. You could also cash a fraction of them in so the original investment (and maybe a little extra for spending money) is at least
"protected"[1].

## References

1. Then again, the banks could decide it's inflation time and fuck you on traditional currencies any time they want...

--
I mean the best with what I say. It doesn't always sound that way.

 Go to: Allegro Development Installation, Setup & Configuration Allegro.cc Comments Off-Topic Ordeals The Depot Game Design & Concepts Programming Questions Recent Threads