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I realize I'm about to open a huge can of worms but...
bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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I'm skeptical. It seems even the scientists making the claims of global warming (or climate change, if you will) aren't sure of their own science. The impression I've gotten from shows ("programmes", for those of you on the other side of the Atlantic) on Discovery and National Geographic are that many of the scientists in support of global warming are pulling evidence out of thin air (and I don't mean literally).

I just get sick of hearing them say "X is Y" when I know that they don't really know for sure. They're looking at a piece of evidence and coming up with one possible explanation for it and going with that as factual instead of questioning the other things that the evidence might indicate. I prefer the scientist that says "I hypothesize that X is Y because of A and B and these are all of the ways I'm going to prove it". That's the kind of scientist that I want to stand behind.

Scientists have already shown that the Earth's climates cycle wildly and that humanity doesn't fully understand the vastness of these cycles yet. It seems perfectly logical that this so called warming is merely a periodic recurrence that we just haven't witnessed before (or maybe we have witnessed it before and it's either forgotten about or being swept under the rug).

As if what we've been observing as the full picture was really just a sliver of the graph. The Earth is believed to be hundreds of millions of years old, IIRC. Human civilizations are believed to be tens of thousands of years old, IIRC. It's perfectly reasonable to assume we haven't seen anything yet.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't consider the possibility that global warming might be happening, might be a problem for our survival, and that we might be able to prevent or slow it; but we should also consider the possibility that global warming might not be happening, might not be a problem for our survival, or that we might not be able to prevent or slow it. It's important to stay objective and consider every possibility.

For all we know, the measures we take to "prevent" global warming could have adverse affects themselves. We just don't know. I think it's better to trust what we think we know instead of trusting what we know we don't.

By all means, look for cleaner and more renewable energy resources and work towards conserving energy, but not to the extremes that some people think we should go to. We need to continue to live life as normal. It doesn't really matter if we do go extinct. You won't be able to care because you won't exist anymore. We'll either figure out how to survive or we won't. It happens every day in the wild and even in our very own cities.

Humans are just as natural to this planet as any other animal on it. We shouldn't assume any responsibility for preserving the state of the planet. In the past, most of our efforts to help have had unforeseen consequences that are just as bad or worse than the original problem.

Vanneto
Member #8,643
May 2007

bamccaig said:

Humans are just as natural to this planet as any other animal on it. We shouldn't assume any responsibility for preserving the state of the planet. In the past, most of our efforts to help have had unforeseen consequences that are just as bad or worse than the original problem.

If we want to survive as a race (following our survival instinct, we are just like any other animal, right?) we need to take responsibility and preserve our planet.

I don't know about you, but I actually do want this planet to be a pleasent place at least in my lifetime. :P

In capitalist America bank robs you.

Evert
Member #794
November 2000
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bamccaig said:

I just get sick of hearing them say "X is Y" when I know that they don't really know for sure. They're looking at a piece of evidence and coming up with one possible explanation for it and going with that as factual instead of questioning the other things that the evidence might indicate. I prefer the scientist that says "I hypothesize that X is Y because of A and B and these are all of the ways I'm going to prove it". That's the kind of scientist that I want to stand behind.

There's two things. There's how scientists talk among themselves, with ifs and buts and caveats, and there's how scientists talk to other people who are not in the fields and who are not scientists. In that case, you do say "X is Y" because the general public generally doesn't care about caveats and loop holes, uncertainties and arguments for or against.
Anyway, philosophically scientist shouldn't go and try to prove their hypothesis (although in practice that's what many of us try to do) they should try to disprove it.

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Scientists have already shown that the Earth's climates cycle wildly and that humanity doesn't fully understand the vastness of these cycles yet. It seems perfectly logical that this so called warming is merely a periodic recurrence that we just haven't witnessed before

Ehm... that's exactly what it is. There's nothing logical about it one way or the other. The climate is changing, at a rate that hasn't been seen before.

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As if what we've been observing as the full picture was really just a sliver of the graph. The Earth is believed to be hundreds of millions of years old, IIRC.

4500 million years old.

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Human civilizations are believed to be tens of thousands of years old, IIRC. It's perfectly reasonable to assume we haven't seen anything yet.

There are climate indicators that stretch back more than the timeframe during which humans have been around. That's how we know climates change.
Also consider this. For much of those 4500 million years, the Earth would have been uninhabitable or uncomfortable for us to live on.

Quote:

I'm not saying that they shouldn't consider the possibility that global warming might be happening, might be a problem for our survival, and that we might be able to prevent or slow it; but we should also consider the possibility that global warming might not be happening, might not be a problem for our survival, or that we might not be able to prevent or slow it.

Yes, but that can't be an argument to do nothing. If A can prevent B, and B is something that you very much don't want to happen - then you're better off doing A.

Either way, as a scientific topic, this is not something where people get to vote in opinion polls on which is right and which is wrong. It's like asking the general public whether they think evolution is right or wrong. Their opinion counts for nothing in such a discussion.
Because you don't understand it doesn't mean it's false. Because you don't believe it doesn't mean it's wrong (and vice versa). Because it's inconvenient a problem doesn't rectify itself.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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Evert said:

4500 million years old.

That's what I said. 45 hundred million years old. :P

Evert said:

There are climate indicators that stretch back more than the timeframe during which humans have been around. That's how we know climates change.

Yes, but we haven't really reached a point where we can confidently put the pieces together to form a solid understanding. Much of the data is still misunderstood or open to interpretation (indeed, I've seen shows on Discovery or National Geographic where other respected scientists challenged the claims made based on said evidence) and our sample sizes are still considerably tiny. There's a lot more data to collect and much more to learn.

Evert said:

Yes, but that can't be an argument to do nothing. If A can prevent B, and B is something that you very much don't want to happen - then you're better off doing A.

Except that we don't yet know for sure that A can prevent B. It seems plausible, but there's still too much that we don't know. We also don't know just how much of A is plausible. It's been my understanding that we can't even say for sure what B entails.

X-G
Member #856
December 2000
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bamccaig said:

It seems even the scientists making the claims of global warming (or climate change, if you will) aren't sure of their own science.

Just like, ostensibly, evolutionary scientists (or should I say EVILutionary, eh?) aren't in agreement on the mechanics one evolution either? :P

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Since 2008-Jun-18, democracy in Sweden is dead. | 悪霊退散!悪霊退散!怨霊、物の怪、困った時は ドーマン!セーマン!ドーマン!セーマン! 直ぐに呼びましょう陰陽師レッツゴー!

OnlineCop
Member #7,919
October 2006
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Evert said:

People will tend to rely on our technology and innovation to counter any problems that may arise.

Vanneto said:

If we want to survive as a race (following our survival instinct, we are just like any other animal, right?) we need to take responsibility and preserve our planet.

Build an arc. Gather up your applications, 2.0 by 2.0, and hope that when the polar ice caps melt, you've purchased flood insurance. ;)

Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
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BAF said:

we used to think the earth was square and that it was at the center of the universe

Even when I was a very young kid, I could tell the difference between the "let's pretend" Bizarro superman and the real Superman. ;D

{"name":"bizarroworld.jpg","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/9\/3\/93e17350317b94573b2409691275fe76.jpg","w":450,"h":441,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/9\/3\/93e17350317b94573b2409691275fe76"}bizarroworld.jpg

They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas.

X-G
Member #856
December 2000
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Whoops, missed something.

Evert said:

But there are things our technology will be powerless to prevent. Natural disasters is an obvious example and I suspect climate change is another.

But that's not really true, is it? Technology already helps us prevent or mitigate the effects of natural disasters all over the place. An example that comes to mind right away is earthquake-resistant buildings; not perfect, but certainly dramatically lessening the impact of that particular natural disaster. Seismological and meteorological sciences provide us with the means to track and predict disasters early enough to ward against the disaster or, at worst, evacuate the area beforehand. Even when disaster does strike, modern advances in communications, medicine, transportation and other fields of science has made us significantly more capable of responding to natural disasters when they occur and saving many, many lives that would've been lost in a more primitive age.

The answer, if anything, is more technology, and technology used responsibly with the best of mankind in mind. The fact that we're stampeding towards a future without a functioning ecosystem doesn't have so much to do with the progress of technology as economy and politics, particularly that of rich first-world megacorporations who, adding to their already magnificient history of exploiting the poor and uneducated for profit, are more than happy to sacrifice coming generations for just another million dollars in their pockets today.

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Since 2008-Jun-18, democracy in Sweden is dead. | 悪霊退散!悪霊退散!怨霊、物の怪、困った時は ドーマン!セーマン!ドーマン!セーマン! 直ぐに呼びましょう陰陽師レッツゴー!

Evert
Member #794
November 2000
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X-G said:

Technology already helps us prevent or mitigate the effects of natural disasters all over the place.

That's true. It's not what I said though.

Quote:

An example that comes to mind right away is earthquake-resistant buildings; not perfect, but certainly dramatically lessening the impact of that particular natural disaster.

All true. But it's again not an example of what I said. Earthquake resistant buildings don't prevent earthquakes, they reduce (significantly, but they don't eliminate) the impact of one.

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Seismological and meteorological sciences provide us with the means to track and predict disasters early enough to ward against the disaster or, at worst, evacuate the area beforehand.

Sometimes. Sometimes not. Was the earthquake in Haiti predicted (I actually don't know)?
If there is an indication that an earthquake/volcanic eruption will hit a densely populated area (I'm thinking Naples and Vesuvius specifically), is there enough time to evacuate everyone?
Of course, in the case of planet-wide climate change... well, going somewhere else can be even more problematic.

Quote:

Even when disaster does strike, modern advances in communications, medicine, transportation and other fields of science has made us significantly more capable of responding to natural disasters when they occur and saving many, many lives that would've been lost in a more primitive age.

Yup. But again, that's not what I said. Those things don't help prevent said natural disasters.

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The answer, if anything, is more technology, and technology used responsibly with the best of mankind in mind.

That is a good thing, yes.

Quote:

The fact that we're stampeding towards a future without a functioning ecosystem doesn't have so much to do with the progress of technology as economy and politics, particularly that of rich first-world megacorporations who, adding to their already magnificient history of exploiting the poor and uneducated for profit, are more than happy to sacrifice coming generations for just another million dollars in their pockets today.

All of that's right (and if it isn't that's fine and we'll accept it for the fate of argument). It's again not what I said though.

I guess another way to make my point is that to prevent is better than to heal. Especially if you can't be sure that we have the ability to heal whatever it is we're preventing.
Our technology is great and it helps us a lot. But it doesn't (and I think never will) make us invulnerable. So a blind faith that our technology will always be able to get us out of whatever situation we get ourselves into is, in my opinion, naive.

X-G
Member #856
December 2000
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I didn't mean to say you said any of those things (and in fact much of it wasn't aimed at you directly in the first place); you read that into it yourself. What I did mean to say was this: With all the advances we've made in such a short time -- modern science is a relatively new idea, after all -- it is unreasonable to dismiss the possibility that in another few decades we will be able to completely prevent many natural disasters. I know you mentioned that people argue over that sort of thing; yes they do, and I am one of those people who disagree with your pessimistic assertion that the future will not hold those things, and I wanted to bring that up. I think it's important to mention in this context, lest people get the wrong idea.

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Since 2008-Jun-18, democracy in Sweden is dead. | 悪霊退散!悪霊退散!怨霊、物の怪、困った時は ドーマン!セーマン!ドーマン!セーマン! 直ぐに呼びましょう陰陽師レッツゴー!

Evert
Member #794
November 2000
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X-G said:

I didn't mean to say you said any of those things (and in fact much of it wasn't aimed at you directly in the first place);

That's all good and well, but it was in response to a quote of me. While it's fine to expand on what you're replying to, it isn't always clear whether you're simply expanding on what you're saying, or whether you're reading that into what people are saying.
Some people are very good at that.

Quote:

What I did mean to say was this: With all the advances we've made in such a short time -- modern science is a relatively new idea, after all -- it is unreasonable to dismiss the possibility that in another few decades we will be able to completely prevent many natural disasters.

Yes, but there is a distinction between saying that it is unreasonable to dismiss the possibility that we may have such technology in the future and saying that it is reasonable to expect that we will have such technology.

Quote:

I know you mentioned that people argue over that sort of thing; yes they do, and I am one of those people who disagree with your pessimistic assertion that the future will not hold those things, and I wanted to bring that up.

I don't think I'm being pessimistic at all. I'm not saying that we won't have technology to do whatever we want[1], just that we should not count on it that we will.
Our technology today can do remarkable things. Tomorrows technology will do even more remarkable things. But the technology we have now breaks down under certain conditions (extreme weather, for instance) and there are limits to what it can do. That will be true of tomorrow's technology as well. The limits will be different, but they will be there. To believe that that is not so is again, to me, naive.

References

  1. I did say that I believe there will always be things that our technology cannot do, that we will always be limited in some way - at least for the foreseeable future
verthex
Member #11,340
September 2009
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Nasa recently reported that the last decade was the warmest ever.

James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) said in a statement: "There's substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Nino-La Nina cycle. When we average temperature over five or ten years to minimize that variability, we find global warming is continuing unabated."

I recommend everyone to move inland or buy a boathouse. No more sand beaches either, except for maybe in the Sahara.

BAF
Member #2,981
December 2002
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Evert said:

Can we afford to be wrong? Could you look future generations in the eye and say "yeah sorry, we weren't sure and we thought our economy was more important than maybe destroying your future"? I couldn't.

I think we can. I could look them in the eye and say that, but maybe I'm just a heartless bastard.

What if we're wrong about global warming? What if reducing CO2 will make problems worse somehow?

Anyhow, taxing pollution isn't going to do a damned thing, except drive pollution to other countries. So great, now we have tougher laws, we're "helping the world," the net effect on pollution is pretty low, and our economy is even worse. Great going.

Derezo
Member #1,666
April 2001
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I've always been skeptical of "global warming", but wasn't convinced one way or the other until the biggest (only?) known public supporter was a politician. Now there's just all sorts of stuff disproving the bulk of it and pointing to it being a big money grab.

Of course, now we know that it's not just Earth experiencing the phenomena so it seems a little silly to attribute it solely to human affairs, especially given the tiny fraction of emissions we put out in comparison to the natural world. I'm sure it affects it in a significant way, but I doubt it's the primary cause of general warming. Then there was that whole scandal about the cover up, too.

Of course, the "world's super power" has a lot to gain from the whole thing. Is China also owned by Is Ra El? :-/

"Do nothing" isn't the answer, but doing "something" means you actually have to give a damn, and it's pretty unlikely that people will start doing that without a massive war or something crazy like that. Dead cows just taste way too good, and public transportation is "lame" (or just doesn't have enough bass). Maybe those two things wont be valued when half the world is underwater and 80% of the people everyone knows are gone. Maybe. ;)

Oh well. Into the fire they go. The things you own will own you. Believe in Jesus and all that jazz. It doesn't matter what you believe, you're probably right, so pick something and have the mothmen bring it to you ;)

"He who controls the stuffing controls the Universe"

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
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I'm sick of everyone being so brainwashed. When will we get over this and get back to talking with a semblance of logic?

All the double talk, hypocritical and circular arguments are just old. They used to get me mad but now they just make me bored.

If you're idolizing facts that help your theory and downplaying ones that don't maybe it's time to consider a new theory.

Here is a perfect example:

X-G said:

Just like, ostensibly, evolutionary scientists (or should I say EVILutionary, eh?) aren't in agreement on the mechanics one evolution either?

There's something funny going on when intelligent, well thought out posts get heavily scoffed at while inane, unintelligent and brainless posts get by without the slightest critique. In fact the air almost seems to pretend these are useful posts...

And don't try to claim this thread is the first that has unintelligent pro-global-warming in it. No one is that dumb here -- right?

Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
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And don't try to claim this thread is the first that has unintelligent pro-global-warming in it. No one is that dumb here -- right?

As I stated in my first post, I believe global warming is occurring. I don't necessarily believe it's our "fault". I believe we must keep tabs on the situation. I think it'd be easier to alter our "economic maps" than to actually affect the worldwide climate due to our future actions (past actions are spilled milk). I believe the major problems with global warming are not just "it's hotter everywhere", but that climate patterns will change, some parts of the globe will actually get colder, others warmer, (and more of the latter, or it's not "global warming") and expected rainfall for specific regions will change. In other words, we have to pay attention. The US for instance might have to move "the breadbasket of the world" USA great plains states elsewhere, or even change the type of cash crops significantly. Just life as normal as regards to new problems to solve.

They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas.

Derezo
Member #1,666
April 2001
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I'm sick of everyone being so brainwashed.

That's Entertainment.

an activity that is diverting and that holds the attention

The newest weapons technology. Very nice design. Major drawback though: It's victim must request it and accept it... and not know about it.

"He who controls the stuffing controls the Universe"

Evert
Member #794
November 2000
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I'm sick of everyone being so brainwashed. When will we get over this and get back to talking with a semblance of logic?

All the double talk, hypocritical and circular arguments are just old. They used to get me mad but now they just make me bored.

If you're idolizing facts that help your theory and downplaying ones that don't maybe it's time to consider a new theory.

Oh, the irony.

Vanneto
Member #8,643
May 2007

I'm wondering... Is it better to be unintelligent or without a brain? Or is it the same?

And I can't see how bamccaig's post is intelligent or thought out... Let me correct the statement for you.

There's something funny going on when intelligent, well thought out posts that are anti-global-warming get heavily scoffed at while inane, unintelligent and brainless pro-global-warming posts get by without the slightest critique. In fact the air almost seems to pretend these are useful posts...

OK OK so only verthex's post was pro-global-warming. The other two were just brainless and unintelligent. :P But you get the point.

In capitalist America bank robs you.

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
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I wouldn't disagree with your correction. I was attempting to imply that pro-global-warming arguments were the ones not getting critiqued.

Evert said:

Oh, the irony.

If this is to imply you are not brainwashed, let's prove it. Stop with all the high and mighty talk and let's discuss what makes you think there is a measurable carbon effect. Don't say "some smart scientist" because that's just bullshit.

Give us some reasonable concepts we can discuss intelligently.

Evert
Member #794
November 2000
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If this is to imply you are not brainwashed, let's prove it.

Nope, it's to say that "idolizing facts that help your theory and downplaying ones that don't" is something that a lot of self-proclaimed climate skeptics do very well. Same for the lack of coherent reasoning.

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
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You gotta fight fire with fire.

verthex
Member #11,340
September 2009
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You could resolve any logical argument into axiomatic symbols of negation, and, or, etc... but the results would be the same as using big complicated words which symbolize a context of sentences by using a single word. I suppose all of you could try programming bubble sort without iteration and tell me how that works.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
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What have I done! :o

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs
"Political Correctness is fascism disguised as manners" --George Carlin

Tobias Dammers
Member #2,604
August 2002
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As I see it, things are quite simple really.

The global economy has by now reached a state where economic growth is an absolute necessity for everyone involved, and this growth isn't merely theoretical, it needs to be backed by actual physical growth: resources need to be transformed into goods, and the rate at which this happens needs to grow exponentially to keep the overall economic system intact.
However, in a finite world, resources can never be infinite, and an exponentially growing usage of these resources must end up depleting them completely, in finite time. You may stop using a handful of critical resources, but you have to use something, and that usage will grow exponentially.

Remember the 1980's, when (at least in Western Europe) there was a "green" movement that wanted to protect, well, pretty much everything somehow connected to "nature" or "the Earth"? These days, nuclear power is celebrating a renaissance because it's CO2-neutral and thus "green", while the proponents are conveniently disregarding the facts that the nuclear waste problem hasn't been solved (and is unlikely to be in the near future), and that useable uranium or plutonium are subject to the exponential depletion just like coal, oil, and any other natural resource. These days, intelligent people are proposing to pump CO2 back into the ground, which might solve the CO2 problem, but not the overall exponential growth issue.

So the root of the problem is a economic/political system that mandates exponential growth. Everything else, on both sides of the discussion, are details.

Some of these details strike me for showing their true motives so clearly. A nice one is this: "We are not 100% absolutely positively sure that Global Warming exists and that we are to blame, so we better not change our ways, 'cause otherwise it might turn out we've done something unnecessary, and that would be, you know, embarrassing". Right. So you never wear seat belts when driving your car, because you aren't 100% absolutely positively sure that you're going to have an accident? You're not saving up for retirement, because who knows, you might die long before you reach retirement age, and then all that money would be wasted?
It's so incredibly obvious that people love to hear things like "Don't listen to them evil-speakers, you can keep living your life just like you're used to and everything will be OK", and that other people have observed this fact and are using it to their advantage.

---
Me make music: Triofobie
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