Allegro.cc - Online Community

Allegro.cc Forums » Off-Topic Ordeals » a "Price is Right" game

This thread is locked; no one can reply to it. rss feed Print
 1   2   3 
a "Price is Right" game
Derezo
Member #1,666
April 2001
avatar

I've heard that before, it's just bad math. Why would you add the $2 to $27 when you should be subtracting it? :P

"He who controls the stuffing controls the Universe"

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

Well, for one, you counted the "half lost" as 1 quarter gained.

I'm not entirely sure what your complaint is. My math is right. I formulated it in terms of expected amount of money, instead of expected change in money, but there's nothing wrong with doing so.

Quote:

You didn't quote the problem correctly.

There's no error as far as I know in what I quoted, or explained. I didn't go into the explanation of why a 1.25 expected value was problematic, in part because I thought it would be readily apparent.

Quote:

The problem is that, since there is an "expected gain" of .25, why does one not continue to switch indefinitely.

Well, there are really several problems. The first, going by the order on the Wikipedia entry, is that of infinite switching. But even once we've realized the logical error that leads to infinite switching, we can change the formulation to say we look in the first envelope when we get it, and it's still apparent that the 1.25 value is wrong by symmetry.

CGamesPlay
Member #2,559
July 2002
avatar

Quote:

I'm not entirely sure what your complaint is. My math is right. I formulated it in terms of expected amount of money, instead of expected change in money, but there's nothing wrong with doing so.

Oh, it seemed to me as though you were counting from the original amount as a gain, then adding instead of subtracting, and arriving at the number you did out of coincidence :) Well, anyways:

Quote:

There's no error as far as I know in what I quoted, or explained. I didn't go into the explanation of why a 1.25 expected value was problematic, in part because I thought it would be readily apparent.

But that part itself is sound. The problem isn't until we begin to switch that this part becomes unsound, and it only does so because of an error the later steps failed to account for.

Quote:

But even once we've realized the logical error that leads to infinite switching, we can change the formulation to say we look in the first envelope when we get it, and it's still apparent that the 1.25 value is wrong by symmetry.

Perhaps ignorance is bliss, because I don't understand why symmetry affects the result when the envelopes are not symetrical... At this point it might be useful to note that I only read up to "a harder problem" on the wikipedia page.

--
Tomasu: Every time you read this: hugging!

Ryan Patterson - <http://cgamesplay.com/>

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

But that part itself is sound.

As "A Harder Problem" goes in to, it isn't really.

Quote:

I don't understand why symmetry affects the result when the envelopes are not symetrical.

Well, the envelopes are symmetrical, in that they had the same chance of getting the most money, and, under the analysis I gave, I assumed that even when I knew what amount my envelope had, each envelope still had the same chance of getting the most money. If you had gotten the other envelope, you'd still want to switch. Grass can't actually always be greener on the other side of the fence, can it? The wikipedia entry puts it this way:

A Harder Problem said:

you will not end up switching envelopes indefinitely in this case as you know both contents after the first switch. Imagine instead that your twin brother/sister opens the other envelope without telling you the amount it contains. Now both of you will find that it's better to switch due to the same argument. This is contradictory as you and your twin can't both win when switching envelopes with each other.

CGamesPlay
Member #2,559
July 2002
avatar

Right but this part is wrong, AFAICT:

Quote:

This is contradictory as you and your twin can't both win when switching envelopes with each other.

Just because the expected value is 1.25 does not mean that you will gain 1.25 the amount of money on a single switch. In fact, that is impossible. It means that over the course of repeated independant trials, you will arrive at an average of 1.25 times the amount of money per play.

--
Tomasu: Every time you read this: hugging!

Ryan Patterson - <http://cgamesplay.com/>

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

Right but this part is wrong, AFAICT:

Well, I wouldn't call it wrong so much as just sloppy. Hopefully you get the point -- you and your twin both 'winning' in expectation from the switch doesn't work out. I mean, think about -- say you and the twin get to play this a lot of times -- enough so that expected values can be taken as good approximations of actual winnings. If you and your twin don't employ the swap strategy, you and your twin both get half the total amount of money put in envelopes, by symmetry. If you and your twin employ the swap strategy, you both get 1.25 times half the total amount of money, so, when you combine your winnings at the end of the day, you've won 1.25 times the total amount of money given out!

CGamesPlay
Member #2,559
July 2002
avatar

Quote:

If you and your twin employ the swap strategy, you both get 1.25 * .5 the total amount of money, so, when you combine your winnings at the end of the day, you've won 1.25 times the total amount of money given out!

This is why that line is wrong. Expected value does not mean average value. I means that, odds are, given n trials, you will end up with a score of n * expected value. It doesn't mean that you are certain to get that number, it's based on the probabilities involved in the original problem.

Remember, the trials need to be independent. Counting my and my cousin's winnings from the same set of envelopes is not independent.

[edit]
/me learns how to spell independent.

--
Tomasu: Every time you read this: hugging!

Ryan Patterson - <http://cgamesplay.com/>

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

This is why that line is wrong. Expected value does not mean average value.

Expected value becomes exact value in the limit as number of trials approaches infinity.
So what I'm saying is, the expected analysis gets us that both twins will end up, in the long run, with 1.25 times the winnings they would have had. Summing that to see the total exceeds 1 doesn't require the expected value analysis.

edit: The expected value independence thing threw me, a bit, but now that I think about it more, I realize: The trials need to be independent from one another, which they are, if we call a trial one iteration of the envelope game. The probabilities considered, however, do not need to be independent. So saying the expected value of the combined twins' winnings is 1.25 times the total input is actually fine.

ImLeftFooted
Member #3,935
October 2003
avatar

I found this link

Having to do with the shaking hands problem, it seems maybe matt and I are wrong.

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

Having to do with the shaking hands problem, it seems maybe matt and I are wrong.

That link agrees with your result, though ... why do you think you're wrong? ???

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

I looked at that problem from the bottom up, using the trivial cases, making the safe assumption that there is no loss of generality. Using the same rules, if you invite no couples, the spouse shakes 0 people's hands.

If you and your spouse (Y and S) invite one couple (A and B), then some combination of A,B,S must shake 0,1, and 2 hands. Assuming A shakes only the spouse's hand, you get:

A: S
B: ?
S: A

Now, S must shake another person's hand because A shook exactly one. The only choice is:

A: S
B: S
S: A,B

But now we are stuck because A and B both only shook 1 hand. There's no way to get around it, other than for B to shake Y's hand, but that won't work because A & B will both shake 2 hands. Another contradiction happens if you say A only shakes Y hand.

A: Y
B: ?
S: ?

Now B must shake either 0 or 2 hands. If B shakes 0 hands, then S must shake two hands. But that's impossible, because S has no one else to shake. If B shakes 2 hands, then S must shake 0. But the only way for B to shake 2 hands is to shake S hand. So that case falls apart.

This only leaves the following case:

A: Y,S
S: A
B: -

Now you have a valid 2,1,0 combination. So the spouse must have shook 1 person's hand. Obviously A & B are interchangeable, but that's not relevent.

Anyway, it's reasonable to assume that there is no loss of generality here, and that as you work your way up with more couples, you maintain the same pattern with the spouse being stuck in the middle, because you are the outsider.

BAF
Member #2,981
December 2002
avatar

Kinda late, but I just found this by freak accident. I was watchings something totally unrelated, and happened to click on this and then I realized what it was. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9WFKmLK0dc

Peter Hull
Member #1,136
March 2001

This was told to me by a guy from Israel in about 1990. The story concerns a particular village where there were 50 couples - 50 husbands and 50 wives. The problem was that one or more of the wives were being unfaithful. In this village, if a wife was unfaithful, she'd sleep with each of the 49 other man, without her own husband being aware of it! At the monthly village meeting (to which only men are invited), this problem came up. The town elder said, "If a man discovers that his wife has been unfaithful, he should not act straight away, but wait until midnight. On the stroke of midnight, he should shoot her through the heart."

That night, nothing happened.
The following night, nothing happened.
The next night, shots were fired.

How many wives were unfaithful?

Pete

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

How many wives were unfaithful?

Is there information missing from this puzzle? I don't understand the mechanism by which husbands realize they have unfaithful wives.

ReyBrujo
Moderator
January 2001
avatar

If a man has slept with another woman, his own wife has been unfaithful.

--
RB
光子「あたしただ…奪う側に回ろうと思っただけよ」
Mitsuko's last words, Battle Royale

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

If a man has slept with another woman, his own wife has been unfaithful.

Wait, so if the husband is unfaithful he knows his wife also is? Then shouldn't all the murders occur on the first night? Also, why would that be the case? ???

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Three were dead. :(

Husbands only know when other wives cheat. So if he knows two have cheated, he'll wait till third day to kill his wife. :-[

Zaphos
Member #1,468
August 2001

Quote:

So if he knows two have cheated, he'll wait till third day to kill his wife.

Oh, okay, I get it now. Thanks.
(What a depressing problem formulation, though!)

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

If you didn't know anyone cheated, then you'd kill your wife on day 1 (under the riddle's assumption that it was known that at least one person cheated). If you knew one person cheated, then you'd kill your wife on day 2 if no one died previously (because if that was the only person to have cheated, then she would have been killed on day one by her husband that didn't know of anyone), etc... Anyway, it's late, and I'm going to bed. :-X I think I described it correctly.

 1   2   3 


Go to: