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$700 Billion bailout failed
superstar4410
Member #926
January 2001
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Three words to all Americans out there (myself included)

Save, Save, and oh yess Save !!!

This is not the time to buy that $150 pair of brand name tennis shoes,
Not the time to buy that new Jaguar you plan on financing
Not the time to useless spending, trust me, save your money.

Some will say its spending that stimulates the economy not saving and YES,
they are right, but just go ahead and spend all your money and see
how stimulated your personal finances will be.

Don't take yourself too seriously, but do take your responsibilities very seriously.

Bob
Free Market Evangelist
September 2000
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I have no specific replies to add, so I'll just cross-post what I've already written elsewhere.

(Cross-posting from another forum)

The bill title was "To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide earnings assistance and tax relief to members of the uniformed services, volunteer firefighters, and Peace Corps volunteers, and for other purposes"

Even those in favor of the bill couldn't get themselves to actually title it properly. Cue next election, where we'll see politicians arguing that they were voting for tax reductions on firemen, national guardsmen, etc!

(Cross-posting from another forum)

>>could you please come up with specific pieces of regulation that supposedly have triggered this crisis

Sure. I'll give you 4 of the prominant ones. There are plenty of other, more minor ones.

1. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 is the prime piece of legislation involved. When interest rates are held artificially low, it does create a bubble in assests that are were comparatively undervalued. When interest rates are below market rates, does that make it more or less likely for loans to be taken and malinvested? Does guaranteeing banks against runs make them unnecessarily loan out more or less of their deposits?

2. The Glass-Steagal Act of 1933, among other things, creates the FDIC, which guarantees depositor money against risk taken by banks. Does that make banks more or less likely to take unnecessary risks?

3. 1975 creation of NRSRO and special priviledges given to them by the SEC. NRSRO gives a government stamp of approval to certain ratings agencies. This pretty much killed off all competitors. Moreover, federal regulations require sellers of securities to have their securities rated. Conflict of interest much? If you can shop around for raters, why wouldn't you pay the agency that rates your securities highest?

4. Creation of FNMA and FHLMC. Even though they were spun-off as private corporations in 1968, they enjoyed implicit government backing. This allowed them to get funding at 10 to 20 basis points below LIBOR and thus ~40 basis points above US Treasuries. In other words, the implicit guarantee allowed them to be treated as "almost as safe as the US government".

Various tax advantages, more direct subsidies and SEC preferrential treatment have allowed FNMA and FHLMC to out-compete private investments. Moreover, they served as a (taxpayer-backed) dumping ground for questionable MBSs and other toxic waste.

Let's also ignore the FNMA accounting scandal from 2004, where it became clear that FNMA didn't even know what it was buying and holding on to.

(More cross-posting from another forum)

The point is that the crisis would never have been so big if it was not for the government; the free market has plenty of negative feedback loops to prevent that from happening.

Remember the housing bubble of 1925? Yeah, me neither.

--
- Bob
[ -- All my signature links are 404 -- ]

Matt Smith
Member #783
November 2000

I tried to borrow £50 when I was on the dole and computer said no, so buggr'em.

People want to live in overpriced houses? Buggr'em

Millenium hand and shrimp.

I found a font rapscallion24lh1.th.png

This is just like '25

ReyBrujo
Moderator
January 2001
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Here applies the concept of "too big to bankrupt". It is just impossible. Down here, our privatized airlines were a mess, and the Congress had two plans: get in charge of it, or let it go bankrupt and found a new national airline. The officialism won, and so we absorbed a company that has 25 planes and over 900 pilots (yes, almost 36 pilots per available plane).

Also, the more merges there are, the most consolidated the market becomes, and the higher chance of a monopoly or a oligopoly to develop in such market.

--
RB
光子「あたしただ…奪う側に回ろうと思っただけよ」
Mitsuko's last words, Battle Royale

Matt Smith
Member #783
November 2000

A trained pilot is worth money. Sell them. No need to tell them they've been sold.

Pilot 1 : Is this plane a different colour from yesterday?

Pilot 2 : I don't know, I can't see from here.

Frank Griffin
Member #7474
July 2006

I am happy the bail out failed.

It was a horrible bill.

If the Dems would quit putting crap into something that should be simple we would not wind up with a 106 page document.

95 dems did not vote for it and 131 Republicans did not vote for it. It looks like a nice hunk of Dems knew this was a big hunk of crap to vote on. It takes a woman like Pelosi to completely screw things up.

Fannie and Freddie enabled the Dems to create a situation were the normal signals of capitalism would not work. This situation was caused by regulation or it could be called government force since thats the entity that dictated banks to loan to bad risk individuals. Warnings were given about statements like "we will no longer let things like bad credit ratings or lack of full employement be a reason to not make someone a loan" This was an actual statement from these guys.

I just bought in for another 20k short term investment (401k mutual funds) just before the markets closed today. I am banking on a decent bill getting passed soon which will make the markets shoot right back up. If not I am still ahead of the game. They will pass something however. This is some of the easiest money I have ever made.

"gut feeling the people in England are poor" -Samuli
"taken out of context it's an awesome quote" - Jonatan Hedborg

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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Now you're saying its a horrible bill? AND you're agreeing with the evil Liberals? What happened to your staunch support of the bill? :P

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Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Erikster
Member #9,510
February 2008
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@ Frank G: I forgot to mention how much I love your new title.

Isn't it fascinating how it happens to be the other party's fault in the failure of this bill?

Cat! I'm a kitty cat. And I dance dance dance, and I dance dance dance.

CGamesPlay
Member #2,559
July 2002
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{"name":"needlepoint.gif","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/1\/5\/1534689573c352b7ede656d386b0d382.gif","w":500,"h":423,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/1\/5\/1534689573c352b7ede656d386b0d382"}needlepoint.gif

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Ryan Patterson - <http://cgamesplay.com/>

alethiophile
Member #9,349
December 2007
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;D;D;D

I agree with Bob that it's mainly due to artificial meddling with the markets. I saw a similar argument in favor of very minimal government at all; the question was, who will reign in the big corporations? The answer: Big corporations couldn't exist if not for government meddling, so get rid of government and you'll get rid of the corporations. It works either way.

--
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C++: An octopus made by nailing extra legs onto a dog.
I am the Lightning-Struck Penguin of Doom.

nonnus29
Member #2,606
August 2002
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Holy Christ, All I know is I was at school all day studying for a Linear Algebra exam and I get home to find out I lost 8% of my savings/investments... :'(

Quote:

This is a historic moment, one that you will be able to tell your grandchildren about in 50 years.

Indeed. I think it would've been a stop gap if it would've passed. In a couple of months the markets would still be down.

BUT

The effects of a lot of banks failing won't be felt for a couple of years. The Great Depression didn't start right after 1929. It was 1932 or so before it really set in. Then we had the rise of fascism and Hitler and all the fun (fun == evil) that ensued.

Bottom line is: Something needs to be done, the Democrats could've passed it with no Rep support. BUT that would've required Leadership. Pelosi? Dodd? Forget it.

Who is Democrats fair haired boy?

ReyBrujo
Moderator
January 2001
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Who wants to save the world when it will put you against your country?

By the way, as Chilean president said at the UN, with USD700km you can end worldwide famine and poverty.

--
RB
光子「あたしただ…奪う側に回ろうと思っただけよ」
Mitsuko's last words, Battle Royale

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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Quote:

By the way, as Chilean president said at the UN, with USD700km you can end worldwide famine and poverty

Not with the way the US does things ;)

--
Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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1/3 of the Democrats voted against it.
2/3 of the Republicans voted against it.

Lack of leadership? Before the vote, the average American didn't want it to be passed. I call it listening to the people who elected you. Of course after the markets dropped, people freak out and change their minds about it.

It's humorous to blame either side when neither side supported it. You have Bush-McCain, Inc. pushing for it, but 2/3's of the Republicans vote against it. Lack of leadership on their part, for sure.

Ben Delacob
Member #6,141
August 2005
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I think the panic is the biggest thing to worry about. Nice listing of facts, Bob! I never noticed how patriotic that Santa hat wearing avatar looked until now.

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Jonatan Hedborg
Member #4,886
July 2004
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I found this amusing (old as it may be)

OICW
Member #4,069
November 2003
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From here it almost looks like politicaly driven bankrupt of your economy.

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Frank Griffin
Member #7474
July 2006

"Now you're saying its a horrible bill? AND you're agreeing with the evil Liberals? What happened to your staunch support of the bill?"

What in the heck are you talking about? You make no sense at all.

Let me help poor Thomas again.

1. We should do something to keep the markets from total collapse.

2. We need a constructive bill to help fix the problem.

3. Liberals totally screwed up the bill with crap like ACORN.

4. People with a brain vote against crappy bill.

5. Begin working on a new improved bill.

All of this will not matter if the Democrats cannot come clean and admit that they screwed everything up. If the government continues to force banks to make bad loans we will be right back in this position again. Who here still believes that deregulation caused all of this and explain how!

"gut feeling the people in England are poor" -Samuli
"taken out of context it's an awesome quote" - Jonatan Hedborg

Bob
Free Market Evangelist
September 2000
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Frank said:

5. Begin working on a new improved bill.

That's the last thing that anyone should do (unless that bill repeals some or all of the regulation I mentioned above).

The cause of this crisis is the (massive) malinvestment of capital into either overvalued, or unproductive assets, or both. A bailout is merely throwing more capital at overvalued or unproductive assets. Not only does that not solve the problem, it creates more of the problem. That ultimately means that the inevitable correction will be larger and more pronounced!

When you realize you've dug yourself a hole, the first step is to stop digging. Then worry about how you get out. Digging a bigger hole hoping that it'll smoothen the way out is not the way to go.

--
- Bob
[ -- All my signature links are 404 -- ]

ReyBrujo
Moderator
January 2001
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I see two sides:

1. Those who want to fix the problem by doing with the bailout, applying more regulations, etc.
2. Those who think the market should fix itself

Most Democrats think 1 is the solution. But the bill failed because most Republicans think the market should fix itself, that there should be consolidation and those who did mistakes should go bankrupt. The problem is not who or when started it, but how to solve it. This is where Bush fumbles, because he wants to fix the problem the way Democrats would do. It cannot be simpler.

--
RB
光子「あたしただ…奪う側に回ろうと思っただけよ」
Mitsuko's last words, Battle Royale

Bob
Free Market Evangelist
September 2000
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The problem with that is that the problem isn't solvable in any politically palpatable way. The correction is inevitable.

Think about it this way: You had saved up $100,000, then decided to "invest" it in something that isn't worth that price. When you (and other prospective buyers) realize that what you paid good money for isn't worth what you paid for it, well there isn't anything that can be done about it.

Taxing other people to reimburse you for your mistake simply shifts the problem to other people. It does not fix the malinvestment, and instead encourages more malinvestments.

If the sales were legal (ie: not fraudulant), then those cannot be undone unless the seller is willing to buy his asset back. If not, then you're just shifting the problem from the buyer to the seller, and not actually fixing the problem.

In effect, we ended up in a situation where not everyone can win. Deciding that "oh well, as long as everyone else loses" doesn't address the issue. It simply creates future distortions in valuations.

We ran through this problem in 1999-2001, with the Y2K scare and the follow-on tech bubble. Interest rates were slashed and funding was misdirected to companies that should never have received funding because they were fundamentally unsound.

The fix implemented was to slash interest rates even more, and redirect even more funding on wacky bailout schemes. What did we end up with? The tech market still crashed, but we got a much larger bubble in housing instead: the excess credit was simply moved elsewhere.

The problem wasn't fixed then and instead caused a larger one.

A bailout here will not fix the housing situation: There is a secular shift of valuations away from housing; Housing is now unattractive, like tech stocks became after the crash.

Instead, the bailout money will funnel itself to another class of assets. The only asset class that can absorb that amount of credit is commodities, and that's the last one you want money to go to: it means higher prices for everything and everyone, and lower average wages at the same time! Having the ~$5 trillion of excess credit in housing going to commodities will make oil at $140/barrel look cheap.

--
- Bob
[ -- All my signature links are 404 -- ]

ReyBrujo
Moderator
January 2001
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I kind of understand that. But I also understand that life in US is different from here: down here, without cash you cannot live. If you want to buy something, you buy it in cash. In US, you live with credits. Getting into debts to buy or pay something is natural not only for people but for organizations. So, how can a system survive when it uses "promises of payment" instead of real money? This crisis only weakens the trust between parts, so credits would naturally become more expensive. But that would only push more people out of the system.

How do you teach people not to take a credit (which must be something as natural as buying a lottery ticket there)? How do you teach them to consider new options when buying something? And this is not even considering those who will suffer in years to come (with retirement funds vaporized, how would those people live once they retire?).

Quote:

The fix implemented was to slash interest rates even more, and redirect even more funding on wacky bailout schemes. What did we end up with? The tech market still crashed, but we got a much larger bubble in housing instead: the excess credit was simply moved elsewhere.

Hehehe, an analyst down here suggested that the big economies in the world (US, Germany, Japan, etc) need all to slash interest at least 1 point to start the path to recovery :P

Quote:

it means higher prices for everything and everyone, and lower average wages at the same time! Having the ~$5 trillion of excess credit in housing going to commodities will make oil at $140/barrel look cheap.

Now this is interesting: with higher prices, US would import less stuff, which would only push the price of those commodities down. The barrel was at USD 120 a week ago, now it is at USD 95. So, you put the money there, but without the world engine consuming it won't reflect on the price. The truth is: this would only benefit those with cash, big corporations and rich individuals.

--
RB
光子「あたしただ…奪う側に回ろうと思っただけよ」
Mitsuko's last words, Battle Royale

Thomas Fjellstrom
Member #476
June 2000
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I have to totally agree with Bob on this one. Let the market correct itself. Trying to "fix" it will only make things worse.

Though the gov't could pad some areas of the economy, maybe buy out and forgive some of those home loans.

--
Thomas Fjellstrom - [website] - [email] - [Allegro Wiki] - [Allegro TODO]
"If you can't think of a better solution, don't try to make a better solution." -- weapon_S
"The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree" -- https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/592870205409353730

Bob
Free Market Evangelist
September 2000
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ReyB said:

Hehehe, an analyst down here suggested that the big economies in the world (US, Germany, Japan, etc) need all to slash interest at least 1 point to start the path to recovery

The Bank of Japan already set interest rates to 0.75%. They were even lower in previous years. It didn't help Japan then, and it won't help the US now.

--
- Bob
[ -- All my signature links are 404 -- ]

ReyBrujo
Moderator
January 2001
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"Correcting itself" means banks going bankrupt, merging themselves or being absorbed by bigger ones, which leads to consolidation, oligopoly and monopoly. You couldn't cure yourself from smallpox, you needed a vaccine. Letting the market crumble won't let you with a better market in the end.

I am not against having those who bet with others' money go bankrupt ;) But the market is just the nominal demonstration of trust. Until now investors always hoped the government would save things if everything went downhill, which gave some trust to the system itself. Without it, those investors will think it twice before doing any kind of business.

Quote:

They were even lower in previous years. It didn't help Japan then, and it won't help the US now.

This analyst said every developed country in the world should do that in a coordinate effort as a starting point. No country can solve this problem alone, that is a fact.

--
RB
光子「あたしただ…奪う側に回ろうと思っただけよ」
Mitsuko's last words, Battle Royale



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