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President electoral map predictions
bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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It baffles the mind that the system used to elect one of the most powerful and influential positions in the world isn't even well enough defined to settle the winner at the end of the day. There should be no need for lawsuits or courts.

  1. Count the votes.

  2. Declare the winner.

  3. (There is no step 3)

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
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This is what a ballot looks like in the Netherlands:

{"name":"voting-election-ballot-paper.jpg","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/9\/6\/9661bf986644ba995d450cad1ca5ef24.jpg","w":2816,"h":2112,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/9\/6\/9661bf986644ba995d450cad1ca5ef24"}voting-election-ballot-paper.jpg

Not really to claim it's better or worse, just putting it out there.

We have elections coming up again in March. The Netherlands may not be as important as the USA, but we do have a larger economy / population than Pennsylvania.

jmasterx
Member #11,410
October 2009

bamccaig said:

Count the votes.

The implementation of CountTheVotes() is full of security vulnerabilities that have not been patched such as:

BUG #324324 Human Error
BUG #324325 Tampering

Something that seems very simple on paper is actually tricky to scale reliably and securely when dealing with humans, high stakes, etc.

The problem is you can't trust the server, and you can't trust the client.

Arthur Kalliokoski
Second in Command
February 2005
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I'm gonna go on the dole now, since it'll be the norm.

They all watch too much MSNBC... they get ideas.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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jmasterx said:

The implementation of CountTheVotes() is full of security vulnerabilities that have not been patched such as:

BUG #324324 Human Error
BUG #324325 Tampering

Something that seems very simple on paper is actually tricky to scale reliably and securely when dealing with humans, high stakes, etc.

The problem is you can't trust the server, and you can't trust the client.

First of all you need to be able to trust the data. The data (the votes) need to be the source of truth. If you can't trust the data, or you didn't keep a log of the votes along the way, then obviously there's no way to verify the results. So having a reliable ledger is critical. That means the physical ballots used to vote need to be kept securely as evidence.

With a reliable log of the votes it should be pretty damn easy to recount if there's any doubt. Of course, human error will always be a factor, but through processes you can eliminate it. This is where letting every state do whatever they want is so stupid. The whole process should be agreed upon nationwide. You should exchange people from various states to help out at voting stations for other states to help prevent tampering. The counting needs to be done at each station first, and then the results get reported up from the neighborhood to the municipal to the state to the national levels. If there's doubt about any of the results you can go back and count those results. There should be no question which votes count and which ones don't. How can you hold an election where these rules haven't been well defined yet?

People should have limited contact with the ballots. They should go into a secure box (or a set of them) at each voting station. The box should never be opened without people from all sides present. The counting should be done out in the open with representatives from all sides present to oversee the process. After the counting is done the votes should be returned to the secured box, transported, and stored at a secure location indefinitely where many parties are required to be present to access the box again.

Obviously if you allow every state to come up with their own process then the entire election is a sham. Any state can just choose an insecure process and have people planted to tamper with the counting. With no reliable data to recount it's impossible to prove fraud. It's absolutely ridiculous. It baffles the mind how a nation that claims to be so great cannot figure this out.

Bob
Free Market Evangelist
September 2000
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2020 does not disappoint.

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Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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My map might be right except for Arizona. Barring any substantial disqualification of votes by our Supreme Republicans, things are looking good for Biden. I can't wait to see Trump go completely unhinged, although I fear what his militia will do.

Bob Keane
Member #7,342
June 2006

Uh oh, Mr. Trump is mad that people are voting after the POLES (his spelling) are closed.

If someone is in line to vote when the poll closes, he still can vote.

ML said:

He must have found where they hid his iPhone.

Twitter has already censored him.

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Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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The definition of polls closing is always been when there's nobody left in line.

It definitely doesn't include not counting ballots that have been mailed and received by election day, which is apparently what President Trump wanted. But hey if we went to stop counting mail and votes that were received on election day that's great for Biden because Nevada is the one place that has a lot of pending votes to receive.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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{"name":"612670","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/a\/9\/a9ed7b9e20e1f326d40f39827e4991c1.png","w":735,"h":806,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/a\/9\/a9ed7b9e20e1f326d40f39827e4991c1"}612670

According to Reuters' live results Biden currently has 227 electoral votes, and only Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain to finish counting.

That means he needs at least 43 more to tie (44 to win). Arizona would give 11 more, leaving 32. Wisconsin would yield 10, leaving 22. Michigan would yield 16, leaving 6. And it appears Alaska, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are going to Trump. Which leaves only Nevada for a tie at best? That doesn't look very good for Biden (or the world) at all. It looks like at best Democrats can get a tie, and losing is not unlikely either. At least, without them challenging any of the results themselves.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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270 wins, not ties. Wisconsin has already been called by most networks. Arizona by a few. But if Biden takes Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan, then he wins.

Pennsylvania is still realistically in play as is Georgia and North Carolina. Keep in mind that the last votes to count are the first ones to arrive... And of course mail in votes favor Biden -- they usually do favor the Democrats, but especially in a year where Republicans don't believe COVID19 is real and Trump (usually) actively discouraged people from voting via mail.

So if there's a million mail-in votes yet to count in a state, then there's a strong likelihood that at least 700,000 of them are for Biden.

Outside of Trump successfully invalidating a large number of votes, it really doesn't look good for him. As a party they did well and Trump didn't do as poorly as projected, but it doesn't look like he's going to win the first time around.

Edit: Just did some math based on numbers from NBC. Biden is down 83k votes in Georgia with an estimated 370k to go. That means if he maintains a 25% margin (62.5 - 37.5) he would squeak ahead there. He's currently winning those votes in the largest remaining counties straight up (including day-of voters) with 20% to 70% margins! So if there really are that many mail-in votes left to count, Biden would win Georgia.

MiquelFire
Member #3,110
January 2003
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I think I heard that Pennsylvania has a system in place in which ballots postmarked by election day has until Friday to be counted. So that state will not be finalized until they close the mailbox Friday at 5PM EST.

As I did mail-in (which I just bypassed the post office and went to the cleck myself), Michigan needed the ballot to come in on election day. So we're just counting the votes now.

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Polybios
Member #12,293
October 2010

Why is this taking so long? >:(

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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In two words: Volume and Trump.

In Pennsylvania alone, I think there were 2.5-3.0 MILLION mail in ballots. It's not like there's a well trained army of vote counters standing by for once-every-few-years elections. Also, keep in mind that the distribution of these ballots are not evenly distributed. The bulk of them are concentrated in the same urban areas.

Each of these are a double creased ballot inside two envelopes. Every single one has to be opened by hand with observers from both parties and the peanut gallery banging on the windows. Each ballot has to be inspected under a variety of different ways depending on the state, fed into a machine, tabulated, sent to the proper officials, distributed to the networks, etc.

Then you have objections from Trump every step of the way designed to slow down the process and create chaos. He will litigate all the way to the end for the small glimmer of hope he can prevent a state from certifying results and preventing anybody from getting to 270.

Some networks have already called Arizona for Trump (including Fox News, much to Trump's dismay). Once Nevada is called, then it's over in terms of a normal election. Assuming Pennsylvania is also called for Biden, it will be over a second time.

Except that Trump won't accept the results and he will litigate in every state he loses. He's not going to concede under any scenario (nor would he ever), so it won't really be over until all the states certify their results which varies... definitely not until early December. Once it's certified, he doesn't have any real legal options left. Or he might, since he's Trump and has the Supreme Republican Court in his back pocket.

Note that even 4 years ago states like Michigan took weeks to determine the result, but Trump had won enough states that Clinton was gracious enough to concede instead of litigating every midwestern state that was within 1%-2%.

Bob Keane
Member #7,342
June 2006

Trump is claiming a big legal win in Pennsylvania. Does anyone know what he is talking about?

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The advantage to learning something on your own is that there is no one there to tell you something can't be done.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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It's the biggest win ever! It's about allowing more people to watch the vote counting. There's also an agreement in place to not count a lot of provisional ballots yet in Pennsylvania until they are further reviewed. (Basically people who were allowed to re-vote after mailing in a disqualified ballot.)

Philadelphia? Stop the vote!
Atlanta? Stop the vote!
Arizona? KEEP COUNTING!!!

Don't count ballots received after election day. COUNT THE LATE MILITARY BALLOTS!!!

He has no coherent, consistent message other than he's a sore loser.

His claim of widespread fraud is ridiculous. There's enough Republicans happy to continue to vote Republican but won't vote for Trump. That part is evident because Republicans didn't lose any seats in the house and kept the Senate. Enough Republican voters have turned their backs on Trump to make a difference. If this were widespread fraud, then Democrats are the worst cheaters in election history. They should have swiped a few Senate seats while they were at it. :P

Bob Keane
Member #7,342
June 2006

He was caught in a lie over the Pennsylvania thing.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-05-20/index.html

More specifically:

CNN said:

A Trump campaign lawyer admitted before a federal judge on Thursday that observers for the campaign were allowed to watch ballot canvassing in Philadelphia, after they claimed in court and the President's supporters alleged they were being deprived unfairly.

By reading this sig, I, the reader, agree to render my soul to Bob Keane. I, the reader, understand this is a legally binding contract and freely render my soul.
"Love thy neighbor as much as you love yourself means be nice to the people next door. Everyone else can go to hell. Missy Cooper.
The advantage to learning something on your own is that there is no one there to tell you something can't be done.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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I think it's reasonable to say that Trump isn't going to win. He might delay for a while, and/or war might ensue, but I don't imagine a world where Trump peacefully takes office again is a thing. What's more interesting to me is his fate after his term does end. Are there any crimes that he will be investigated for? Is he a liability to any foreign agents that may or may not have had ties? Does he somehow return to doing TV? Does his money evaporate, leaving him easy prey for small fish?

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
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Best election ever.

It's always been about ratings and boy does this season of American Downfall not disappoint!

The season finale is gonna rule because they usually kill off half the main cast.

fun side fact: The guy who literally lied to congress (a felony) about warrantless mass spying on citizens not only never got punished, but kept his job to term, and then... got a job at CNN as a senior analyst. A guy who lied to America about spying on every citizen, now works for... CNN.

Meanwhile, Glenn Greenwald is one of like 5 journalists who actually has any integrity at all.

video

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Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Trump 2024!!!!

Trump won't be tried for anything he did as President, but he has a lot of shady business dealings and I wouldn't be surprised if there were some major illegal tax evasion type of stuff related to his charity. Since everybody has been out to get him for the last four years, he's got a very big target, so certain people like the NY AG will likely go after him hard.

I don't expect the next administration to do anything regarding Trump - it's better to look forward.

But Trump won't be going away (unless he lands in jail for something, which is not going to happen). I'd expect him to do something like lend his brand to some crazy right wing network like OAN. We'll have Trump News Network and then Fox News can go back to being a regular right-wing network vs a crazy right-wing network.

GullRaDriel
Member #3,861
September 2003
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What a fucker (The orange guy BTW). I'm happy they cut his crap when doing that 'pseudo' interview.
Praise that CNN man who literally utterly crushed him.

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Mark Oates
Member #1,146
March 2001
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Pennsylvania now leaning to Biden. And, it looks like Georgia has now turned in his favor as well by ~2,000 votes with 99% reporting. Any 2 of those or Nevada would give him the win.

Looks like Biden will be the next president.

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Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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Georgia will be close enough that any reasonable person would be in favor of extra scrutiny and recounts. Forgetting to press upload on even a small batch of votes could impact the results there.

But the other places will be within comfortable margins. Trump can litigate all he wants but it isn't going to change anything.

Bob Keane
Member #7,342
June 2006

Looks like Biden will be the next president.

I would suggest auditing the books very carefully. There might be a few bucks missing.

Edited.

By reading this sig, I, the reader, agree to render my soul to Bob Keane. I, the reader, understand this is a legally binding contract and freely render my soul.
"Love thy neighbor as much as you love yourself means be nice to the people next door. Everyone else can go to hell. Missy Cooper.
The advantage to learning something on your own is that there is no one there to tell you something can't be done.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

I'd offer him a settlement and ask him to leave early. Nothing the printing press can't fix.

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