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President electoral map predictions
Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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This is not what I want to happen, but because 2020 is the worst year ever, I fully expect this to happen:

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Polls are all within margin of error, and I know without a doubt that Trump will successfully block hundreds of thousands if not millions of legitimate early voters based on things like a 90 year old's ability to match a signature or the post office purposefully sabotaging itself (its on-time delivery rate has dropped to lows) in order to deliver election mail late.

A more interesting scenario would be:

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And the following:

- Democrats maintain control of the house majority
- Republicans control 25 state houses, with the rest tied or controlled by Democrats
- No party controls a super majority of senate

In this situation, the House would be deadlocked in picking a President. The minority party in the Senate would fail to show up for a quorum needed to vote for Vice President. On inauguration day, there would be no President or Vice President, so Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the house is sworn in. :o

Edgar Reynaldo
Major Reynaldo
May 2007
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Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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Honestly, yes. If Trump is reelected (fairly or unfairly) and Republicans maintain control of the Senate, I'd have to seriously consider fleeing to another country as a refugee.

Republicans have gone from this:

video

to well, you know, in the course of four years. Another four will only be that much worse.

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
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Man, I can't imagine having to live through four years of the people who put whistleblowers in jail, let BP execs flood the ocean with oil without jailtime, or wall street bankers ruin the entire world's economy. Stupid neo-conservatives. :o

Oh wait, that was the last guy. But at least he was well-spoken! I wish we could go back 4 years to a time when America was RESPECTED... while bombing brown people's weddings with drones.

fun fact: >90 percent of people killed in those drone strikes were civilians.

So here's the real question: Would you rather America look good, while killing literally thousands of innocent civilians, or, look like we're run by a nutjob narcissist that actually pulled us out of the Syrian War for oil?

Until we hold both parties accountable, we're never going to get better. And I don't know what the hell you guys smoke and/or watch that makes you think facts don't matter anymore.

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Niunio
Member #1,975
March 2002
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Good point, Chris. Trump isn't so different than most previous US presidents. Main difference is that he's a worse actor and he doesn't know how to do a public speech.

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raynebc
Member #11,908
May 2010

Sure, Democrats, vote in your party and let's return to escalating wars in the Middle East and hurting the US economy. All those adult-age children who always like to say they'll have to consider leaving the country just because they didn't get their way politically should just up and leave. Normal people won't miss them.

Edgar Reynaldo
Major Reynaldo
May 2007
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raynebc said:

Sure, Democrats, vote in your party and let's return to escalating wars in the Middle East and hurting the US economy.

Yeah, because people like AOC and Bernie and Warren and Porter just want to bomb people. Not every democrat is a fucking neo conservative Chris.

ROFLFMAO You guys can't even come up with anybody better than Trump. At least the Democrats hold caucuses, which are still rigged.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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Trump Republicans shouldn't be so quick to try to run people out of their own party. Plenty of people like myself were basically lifetime Republicans until the party embraced him. Your petty insults remind me of what our president does when he is challenged.

I don't think political parties will save us. But I can't vote for a man who grabs women by the pussy and brags about it.

Trump is different. He's a terrible person. Policies and politics, I'm happy if we have disagreements.

I'm not seeing any electoral map predictions here. >:(

Eric Johnson
Member #14,841
January 2013
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RmBeer2
Member #16,660
April 2017
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wow, how many hackers! if the units are distributed to the lateral provinces correctly it's possible to conquer the entire country in 2 turns. Although the points are already poorly distributed, why are they all condensed in FL when they should be on the edges protecting the conquered territories?

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Rm Beer for Emperor 2020!

Bob Keane
Member #7,342
June 2006

Eric Johnson, that's a scary thought.

CNN said:

CARLSON: You're going to be on the National Mall [in Washington, D.C.] soon performing for Pepsi and the NFL and also to support our troops. A lot of entertainers have come out against the war in Iraq. Have you?

SPEARS: Honestly, I think we should just trust our president in every decision he makes and should just support that, you know, and be faithful in what happens.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2003/SHOWBIZ/Music/09/03/cnna.spears/

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raynebc
Member #11,908
May 2010

Democrat temper tantrums not withstanding, the Trump administration has been extremely effective for positive change for this country's citizens. Literally the best US economy during my lifetime, peace breaking out in the middle east, constitutionalist judges, and a long list of other things you don't care about. It really doesn't matter that the man has personal flaws, his results speak for themselves even if they doesn't align with a radical left agenda. And your hatred for the orange man makes you forgive the evils of the DNC party's politicians. Stop with the false indignation.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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It's not false indignation, it's false equivalence to say all politicians have faults so Trump can be a terrible person and it's ok.

I'm fine with people who understand Trump is a rotten person but believe ends justify the means. I disagree with that moral framework, but at least there's honesty.

Still not seeing any projections.

Edgar Reynaldo
Major Reynaldo
May 2007
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Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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Please not the second prediction.

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
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USA elections are like telenovelas. Every aspect is designed for maximum drama. It's like on the one hand you really love holding elections, but you're also really bad at it.

Let's have only two parties! Winner takes all!
Let's have a system where one can lose the popular vote and still win!
Let's have an independent judiciary consisting of political appointees that can throw the election in a pinch.
Let's have a system where many votes hardly count, make voters register actively instead of automatically, then expend a huge effort telling everybody they have to vote.
Let's make campaigning so expensive that the outcome is guaranteed to be tainted by huge amounts of money.

Seriously, no other country is such a drama queen about its elections.

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bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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Well said, amarillion. :D

Append:

I'm hoping that Biden will win, and I see no reason that he shouldn't (unless legitimate ballots go missing or are ruled "fraudulent"). I don't know enough about the states to draw up a map though. I'm just counting on enough reasonable people being sick of how low Trump has dragged America on the world stage.

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
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Although it might be fun to see the drama that happens if Texas turns blue.

They say it's bound to happen eventually, perhaps not yet this year.

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Bob Keane
Member #7,342
June 2006

RmBeer2 said:

Although the points are already poorly distributed, why are they all condensed in FL when they should be on the edges protecting the conquered territories?

I believe it is Because 20% of Florida's population is over 65. Senior citizens have a larger interest in politics than other groups and probably are more likely to complete the census than other groups.

<edit>

Trump could be in trouble with the Latino voters.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/latino-voters-have-growing-confidence-in-biden-on-key-issues-while-confidence-in-trump-remains-low/

https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/mapping-the-latino-electorate/

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bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-contested-scenarios-expl/explainer-what-happens-if-the-u-s-election-is-contested-idUSKBN2781FS

The best I can make of this is that there is no way to verify the election results, and it isn't even clear what to do if the results are disputed. Good to know. What the fuck kind of "democracy" are you guys running over there?!

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Doesn't look good for Biden unless early votes haven't been counted in the midwest.

In terms of contested elections, there's a process. But how could it be fair? It's got to come down to courts or congress eventually. The worst thing that could happen in terms of a rigged election is for Biden to win after all votes are counted and then the Supreme Court rules that a certain type of vote needs to be discarded (e.g., ballots mailed on time that arrived late) knowing precisely that it would change the results.

If it's a tie or courts take too long, then Congress gets to pick. Likely that means the Republicans this year. If Congress cannot gather a majority then it falls to the Speaker of the House.

What process would be more fair? Arm wrestling? Video games? Let Canada decide?

I should add - it's the electoral college that causes this issue. If it were popular vote, it would almost never be so close that voter fraud / court manipulation could affect the result. Because with the electoral college you have 50 states and you simply go to the closest result that has enough votes to swing the election. So it's easy to find something within 1%-2% that could swing it.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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Why not standardize voting across the country and remove the states from the equation? Use paper and pencil, track votes with ids. You could exchange auditors from various states to help keep an eye on things to ensure standards are followed. Keep records indefinitely. Ultimately, it shouldn't be possible for there to be any real question or you're doing something very wrong.

If for some reason records are untrustworthy and recounting isn't possible then I think that signals a critical failure of the system to function and power should be suspended until the flaws can be corrected and a new election can occur.

I don't think any group, particularly with political ties, should get to decide the outcome (the electoral college is also stupid). It's supposed to be democratic. If that process has holes then fix the holes and try again.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
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But even with pencil and paper, what if you put a mark in for Biden and then shade Trump more fully? Does the vote count? This is where disputed votes come into play. It doesn't really have much to do with audits and tracking votes.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
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My ballots in Ontario, Canada have typically just been a full size sheet of paper with logos, names, and parties in brackets listed vertically (=). An empty circle would be beside the option text, and a graphic surrounding the page would explain to mark an "X" in the circle, with examples of valid ballots and examples of invalid ballots. It should be well defined what counts and what doesn't. I think I've also had detailed instructions from some of the operators, though it seemed to be at their discretion because it wasn't always. They are there though if you have any questions. If it wasn't clear to me I asked them prior to marking anything.

If people still manage to fuck it up we've hopefully narrowed it down to few enough cases to be reasonable. Records should be kept of all votes, counted and rejected. If there's any doubt pull them out of secure storage and recount them. I think the last two or so elections actually had a machine to scan the ballots electronically (unless it was just a fancy tamper-proof sealing device; some kind of machine anyway). That's new. But it looked like the ballots were still being collected and kept.

Matthew Leverton
Supreme Loser
January 1999
avatar

Uh oh, Mr. Trump is mad that people are voting after the POLES (his spelling) are closed. He must have found where they hid his iPhone. What a moron, but his nonsense is very effective. If Trump ends up losing (still a possibility) he is going to be so mad, Twitter might need to increase storage for his tweets.

Obviously people don't vote after the polls (my spelling) are closed, but yeah, we keep counting until all the votes cast before the polls are closed (are counted).

.

Georgia and Michigan could both go Biden's way. North Carolina looks to be very close. My napkin math doesn't look like there's enough votes left in Pennsylvania for Biden, but the absentee ballots as everybody expected are favoring him by wide margins. Trump is closing in on Nevada though, which could be critical if Biden cannot pick up two more.

This is definitely going to be the nightmare scenario of a thousand lawsuits.

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