Allegro.cc - Online Community
Post Reply

Allegro.cc Forums » Off-Topic Ordeals » Hey guys, bitcoin is about to pass $10,000 USD

rss feed Print
Hey guys, bitcoin is about to pass $10,000 USD
Mark Oates
Member #1,146
March 2001
avatar

Might want to follow along:

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/coinbase/USD

{"name":"611130","src":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/e\/0\/e06ff834abf508242568282961cc72a0.png","w":2190,"h":1524,"tn":"\/\/djungxnpq2nug.cloudfront.net\/image\/cache\/e\/0\/e06ff834abf508242568282961cc72a0"}611130

beoran
Member #12,636
March 2011

This is a bubble, but it is hard to say when it will burst... But when it does, I will go short. ;)

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

I pass $10,000 every night on the toilet.

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
avatar

Bitcoin is something that I wish I knew more about and was involved in it, but out of caution I try to approach it by first learning how it all works and reviewing best practices, and after I've opened 20 tabs I go play CSGO for the rest o the night and then a few days later garbage collect the related browser tabs that I don't have the energy to read through, Bitcoin being among them.

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
avatar

It's clearly a bubble.

Sure, it might reach $100,000 before it bursts. So until then, you can make a lot of money from it. As long as there is a greater fool to sell to. But at one point, the world will run out of fools.

--
Martijn van Iersel | My Blog | Sin & Cos | Tegel tilemap editor | TINS 2017

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

Why is it clear that it's a bubble?

I don't really see any problem with traditional money in day-to-day life, but I found this, and some of the points could make sense - as noted, the Greek certainly did have a problem with traditional money recently.

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

bamccaig
Member #7,536
July 2006
avatar

One source said there are approximately 16,698,024 bitcoins in existence so far. At $10k USD that means approximately $167B USD in total worth. That doesn't seem like a problem. I don't know that the bubble should ever burst unless the technology is hacked. Otherwise, it should remain under control, anonymous, untraceable, and therefore very valuable as currency. What will be interesting is how it is or isn't affected by world markets.

raynebc
Member #11,908
May 2010

Its value is far too unstable to be considered a currency. I agree with my government's assessment of it being more relevantly considered a commodity.

amarillion
Member #940
January 2001
avatar

Why is it clear that it's a bubble?

Sound reasons for the existence of a thing is not the same as sound reasons for the value of that thing.

There were good reasons for internet companies in the 90's. They turned out to be overvalued, but the internet itself was sound.

There were good reasons for growing tulip bulbs in the 1600's. They turned out to be overvalued then, but Holland still exports tulips today.

The question you have to ask is: do you think people are buying bitcoin right now because they want to buy something with it? Or are they buying bitcoin in the hope to sell it again for a higher value? If it's the latter in the majority of cases, then: bubble.

--
Martijn van Iersel | My Blog | Sin & Cos | Tegel tilemap editor | TINS 2017

Chris Katko
Member #1,881
January 2002
avatar

I thought it was obvious it was a bubble... the only people using it are hobbyists/fringe-early-adopters/novelty seekers... and illegal as hell people.

Bitcoins will be regulated by law. And the second they do, all the advantages disappear.

Additionally, everyone charges money to use their bitcoins. So what's the point? Bitcoin was only better than dollars/etc because you wouldn't be paying tax (good luck), and paying conversion fees/credit card fees every transaction. Except bitcoin fees often far exceed the comparable bank or credit card.

I'll admit, I've never thought Bitcoin was an amazing idea, so maybe there's some super advantage still I don't know of. But I've never heard anyone really take it seriously other than those fringe types... and drug dealers.

-----sig:
“Programs should be written for people to read, and only incidentally for machines to execute.” - Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

The tech changes the world.. Bitcoin was at a bubble at $1000, it burst to 200. Now look at it again. It'll gain hundreds percent more, and it will lose tens percent.. It's a really wise idea to keep some of it in a regularly rebalanced portfolio(a passive way to sell high, and buy low).

I regret not buying it for $1 of course, when I first heard about it, here on A.CC. It was maybe a decade ago. But well, i put $1500 in to cryptos this spring, and now my crypto portfolio is worth 8200$. It's a diversification, and I don't plan to let it exceed maybe 15% of the value, and I don't plan to add additional money.

But the point is that due to actual changes occurring in the world, it would be weird to think some new abstract value won't appear: we have gold. It's quite useless, but people just agreed it'll be valued. So BTC has all the values gold has, and few extras.. Easier to divide, easier to store. Absolutely limited in quantity(unlike gold). Hence its great store of value. Why BTC, and not something smarter? Cos' BTC is first. Another thing, is that if someone new to appear, it is likely to appear like Bitcon Cash: it'll fork from Bitcoin, and everyone BTC owner will have some of the enhanced currency. Why? Because otherwise go persuade people to buy your stuff, they'll all know you do this for ur own riches.

In other words, BTC will stay volatile for a good while. But I do think it's likely to replace gold in portfolios, int he very long run. Or at least to stand near gold in diversified portfolios. & yes, I don't think $100k is the limit.

P.S:
The stock exchange is majority of my income for the past few years, and its what I do for living(picking stocks, pretty much Russian ones). But I do think cryptos, and mostly BTC have great future, I got no plans to try to get rich with it though. Just an instrument for diversification.

Bruce Perry
Member #270
April 2000

I see, amarillion. That bubble argument makes sense. I learnt something about economics today :)

I've always had a bad feeling about the act of trying to gain money by playing the system instead of by creating something, incidentally.

--
Bruce "entheh" Perry [ Web site | DUMB | Set Up Us The Bomb !!! | Balls ]
Programming should be fun. That's why I hate C and C++.
The brxybrytl has you.

Gideon Weems
Member #3,925
October 2003

I've always called that feeling a conscience.

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

15500$ :D

My initial investment of $1500 turned in to 10 000 today.

jhuuskon
Member #302
April 2000
avatar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

type568 said:

we have gold. It's quite useless, but people just agreed it'll be valued

Gold is pretty much the best corrosion-resistant conductor we have. Every cell phone contains 0.50USD worth of gold.

There's not really that much gold. In total less than 200 000 tonnes mined gold in the world. It's super rare and easily malleable, making it an excellent tender for the past times before the invention of paper money. Granted, its intrinsic value as a conductor came later.

bamccaig said:

Otherwise, it should remain under control, anonymous, untraceable, and therefore very valuable as currency.

The problem with bitcoin is that it's horribly inconvenient as tender because the system doesn't have, and due to its design never will have the capacity to process any significant amount of transactions making it useless as a currency. It solely exists as a speculative investment instrument and a way of making shady deals.

Bitcoin isn't untraceable either. The blockchain is a public ledger and every transaction can be traced back to a wallet, by anyone.

Also, any vendor records that link transactions to users can compromise the anonymity of wallets identified within. So yeah, you can pay a pizza with bitcoin instead of cash, but if the pizza place has surveillance cameras, there goes the anonymity of your wallet.

You don't deserve my sig.

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

Well, seriously - gold's value isn't in its conductivity properties. How much of the 200k tonnes you mentioned are used this way?

I totally agree with you bitcoin is a shit currency, more than this I believe there is no sense to make any centralized blockchain transaction system.

But today gold is a shit payment method as well, and isn't suitable for this. Nevertheless, an investor can buy & sell gold when he desires. So one can do with a Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is easier to store, to transfer. You're even more confident regarding its rarity than you are with gold.

And.. Everyone heard about it, its first in it's kind. If there is a need to fork it - original owner owns a piece of that thing(like bitcoin cash popped up). In other words, the cryptos are a wonderful investment hedge instrument, as well as gold is. It's new, technological.. And is more convenient than is gold. Tulips were really inferior to gold, in many aspects. Bitcoins are superior, probably first thing that can compete with store of value with gold(i'm not talking about income generating instruments like stocks, debt instruments, estate/land etc').

I think bitcoin has a great future, nevertheless - i'm very risk averse, and invested a small fraction of capital with it. But holding about 10% in it makes sense. Now I've some 8%.

Rodolfo Lam
Member #16,045
August 2015

About 3 years ago I bought 25USD in Bitcoin just to test the system, and haven't touched them since... They are worth around 210USD right now, looks like good ROI to me, wish I had taken the plunge and bought more :P Would have definitely sold them by now if that had happened.

type568
Member #8,381
March 2007
avatar

Yeah, I'm sure there are many people bought cheapily, and now are sad cos' they sold it too early. The way to go to be calm, is portfolio rebalancing: e.g. keeping ~10 in Bitcoin. This way you pull out as it grows, and buy a little as it plunges. The more volatile is the instrument, the more income such approach generates.

Post Reply
Go to: